LBMEFM
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 05:59 AM |
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Weather forecast - Rant.i
Seven day weather forecasts, what's the point. Being an ex seaman I realise the importance of accurate short term weather forecasts. However,
what is the point of the seven day forecasts such as the BBC's online one. Until I recently retired I ran a small building company and if we say
considered opening up a roof I would check the weather for a good day, invariably it would be wrong, in fact over the course of six months I compared
forecast for five days ahead and on 7 out of 10 occasions it was different to the forecast. This Saturday I am driving at Lydden Hill, on Monday the
forecast for Saturday was full sun by Tuesday it was going to be cloudy, Thursdays was rain in the afternoon and today it's gone back sunny in
the morning and a cloudy afternoon. Again what is the point of the 7 day forecast, I would suggest the Met Office ask for a refund on their £94
million pound super computer I believe they recently purchased. ( Rant over)
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cliftyhanger
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 06:59 AM |
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The point of the forecast is to give the general public something to talk about, and that would not happen if the forecasts were accurate.
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joneh
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 07:14 AM |
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Maybe that's one reason the bbc have not renewed their met office contract!
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02GF74
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 07:20 AM |
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Find a spider in your garden. They will never, or hardly ever, build a net when its going to rain. They usually build one early in the morning so
you have weather predicted for the rest of the day. Not much use in winter when they hibernate and only applies to the immediate vicinity.
Also the flying ants, the day they appear guarantees a dry day but can only be used to predict one or two days a year.
F@@k knows how many spiders 95 million would buy.
[Edited on 4/11/16 by 02GF74]
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r1_pete
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 07:49 AM |
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£94M Super Computer or £50 Tablet, put garbage in you get garbage out.....
In this case its probably the analytical software was developed in some emerging country where staff work for next to nothing.
You need one of these:
 
weatherstone
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 07:56 AM |
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The basic problem is that Britain's weather is very unpredictable, and even the best forecasters struggle. Their biggest mistake (IMHO) is
trying to do a a 7-day forecast, when even 24 hours is difficult.
I have the Accuweather app on my phone & tablet - they get their data from a different source to the met office. I usually compare the two to get
an answer! Accuweather is also available on-line. I also look at Will It Rain Today? and make my own guess
about whether there's rain on the way in my neighbourhood (the most accurate method in the short term).
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JC
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 08:09 AM |
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The trouble also stems from the fact that the 'big computer' that the met office uses doesn't seem to take into account 'local
effects'. Here in Lincolnshire, whenever there is a westerly, we are in a 'rain shadow'. When the BBC muddy puddles forecast shows
rain, we rarely get it!
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Doctor Derek Doctors
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 08:09 AM |
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Are you beyond hacked off?
It's the weather, it's difficult to predict. Sometimes it rains sometimes it doesn't.
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Slimy38
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 08:13 AM |
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I was once told that the 7 day forecasts now are as accurate as the 24 hour forecasts were twenty years ago, so that is a reasonably good guide on
what several million pounds worth of computer gets you!
I remember when forecasts were 'sun with a bit of cloud and a chance of rain or snow'. Basically they didn't know so they covered
all bases!!
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mcerd1
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 08:27 AM |
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that new computer is only just meant to have started running in September (if it wasn't delayed) and isn't meant to be at full capacity
until sometime in 2017....
so basically £97m or not we are still using the old one for a while yet 
quote:
Originally posted by Slimy38
I remember when forecasts were 'sun with a bit of cloud and a chance of rain or snow'. Basically they didn't know so they covered
all bases!!
down south that would mean they didn't know - in the west highlands thats a normal day in May
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Irony
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 09:55 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
Find a spider in your garden. They will never, or hardly ever, build a net when its going to rain.
[Edited on 4/11/16 by 02GF74]
A very locost idea. Although how would you tell if the spider has built a web or not? They may have built webs but you are unable to find it. Do
you have a set amount of time for spider searching and then after that time you give up and assume no webs built and therefore rain? Or is this a
spider/spiders you have in captivity? If so how do guarantee that the spider is displaying normal spider like behaviour and is not in some way
distressed by you keeping it or them prisoner?
[Edited on 4/11/16 by Irony]
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tegwin
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 01:09 PM |
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Weather forecasters do a pretty good job considering they are basically predicting the future....
All of my work (flying related) is weather dependent... I use the met office website for an idea of what is coming and then 24 hrs before start
watching the pressure charts and rainfall radars to make an estimation of where things are moving... The BBC simplify the data too much to be useful
to me.... Learn to read synoptic charts and radar and you will have more luck predicting what is going to hit...
Amazing being able to schedule flights between fronts of rain visible on the radar.
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Would the last person who leaves the country please switch off the lights and close the door!
www.verticalhorizonsmedia.tv
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coozer
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| posted on 4/11/16 at 03:21 PM |
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2am news and weather on 5live..
The night will dry and clear with a small chance of rain in the west.....
There's me driving up the A19 in the east with my wipers on...
The hourly forecasts are rubbish never mind the 7 day ones!
1972 V8 Jago
1980 Z750
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