flak monkey
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 12:57 PM |
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Thats the thing you see...
Is the climate changing? Yes it is - and always has done
Is man having an effect on the current increase in temps? Maybe - but at the moment the average global temp is well within the normal historical
variation.
How big is the effect? No one really 100% knows - hence why governments are taking the precautions of trying to reduce emmissions.
You can make the data say what you want depending on your viewpoint. In the 1970s the data pointed to global cooling and everyone was panicing that
the next ice age was coming as the trend was globl temps decreasing. Now the trend is increasing temps everyone jumps on the global warming
bandwagon.
Theres a saying in the scientific community - if you want funding for your project mention climate change and you'll get as much as you can
spend.
My viewpoint is this:
The climate is changing - though whilst it is within the natural variation of historic temps I am not panicing.
Yes the whole world needs to reduce its use of carbon based fuels, this can only be a good thing long term as it provokes development of new
technologies. And this should be the driving force for these technologies.
Sera
http://www.motosera.com
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Confused but excited.
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 12:59 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by smart51
Even China is now industrialising
we consume 3 times as much natural resource as the planet can support per person
Your grand-kids had better learn Chinese then. It's only a matter of time..........
Tell them about the bent treacle edges!
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twybrow
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:02 PM |
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Forgive me chaps, I sent the link to this thread to my Mrs, who is a climate change advisor for the UK goverment. Here is her response:
"Yes, climate has always changed, lots of natural cycles, caused, in part to Milankovitch cycles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles. This is totally normal, and explains some of the things listed above - warmer in roman times,
colder in middle ages (the mini-ice age), sea level changes, and there is nothing we will do to change these natural cycles.
However, the levels of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere are totally unprecedented for many thousands of years. These are warming the
Earth and masking the natural cycles (e.g. the mentioned ice age we are apparently heading towards). Yes, we've seen CO2 levels this high before
many millennia ago, but we weren't around then. With 6 billion people living on our planet now, climate changes of the scale we will see if we
don't do anything will be, quite simply, catastrophic.
Has anyone actually sat down and read the latest assessment of ALL the climate science out there, the IPCC forth assessment report
(http://www.ipcc.ch/)? I haven't, and until I do, I think its fair to say that there are a lot of people out there who understand the science
more than me. Most notably, about 96% of all the climate scientists out there.
And we have quite considerably more than the Central England Temperature record. Yes, this is one of the best data sets due to its detail, accuracy
and length, but we have quite an arsenal of other data at our disposal - including ice cores, which document Earth's changes from well before we
ever started using thermometers.
Remember - "global warming" isn't all about being able to sit about outside in your pants in the middle of winter in 50 years time.
Yes, we are expecting AVERAGES of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers, but we also expect more extreme weather events. The climate will
get more unpredictable. It is quite possible that we can have a cold summer or a dry winter without us all proclaiming that the science is rubbish.
All the latest climate predictions for the UK can be found at http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ - the most advanced in the world - and you can look for your
region at what you might be able to expect (on
average) in the future. Definitely more kit car days for me.
And, for the record, the ozone layer is NOT related to global warming - not all environmental issues raised in the last 30 years are to do with global
warming!"
I'll happily send her any questions/comments you might have....
[Edited on 22/12/09 by twybrow]
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:02 PM |
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^ spot on flak monkey
Those climate change hypochondriacs always look on the bad side of things. Think off all the huge areas of land that will become usable instead of
being too cold, Canada, Russia for example while of some desert regions becoming more barren, which is a pretty stupid place to live anyway.
[Edited on 22/12/09 by Mr Whippy]
Fame is when your old car is plastered all over the internet
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zilspeed
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:25 PM |
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FFS lads.
All I said was, don't you think it's a bit chilly this winter 
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A1
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:26 PM |
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climate change is a natrual occurance, the world has gone through 4 major climate shifts in its life.
this may be encouraged by us, or it may not, but anything we do now wont make any difference for hundreds of years.
the world apparently orbits the sun in an eliptical pattern, so sometimes its closer to the sun and we get hot and sometimes its further away and we
get cold.
i dont think we should be too worried, we just shouldnt be as wasteful as we have become. Long and short is theres just too many humans and sooner or
later nature will come sort us out.
just my 2p
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mangogrooveworkshop
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:48 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by zilspeed
FFS lads.
All I said was, don't you think it's a bit chilly this winter
FCUK Lads Im depressed enough as it is......
All I can say is WEAR THE FOX HAT!
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Findlay234
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 01:58 PM |
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We are technically coming out of an ice age in the GRAND scheme of things so temperatures should be increasing....
should they be increasing as fast as they are currently?... maybe not... whos to really say
If they are increasing faster than normal can we say that this is our fault?....... not catagorically.
Do we have an effect on the planet?.... undoubtedly
Is it as big as an effect as some wish you believe? (al gore and other political types)...... maybe... but probably not.
Do we have a duty to try and do something about it?.... yes we should try and limit our affect on the planet but we must tread carefully....
"look china, i know weve had our industrial revolution but now we THINK it has an effect on the climate we would like you to stop having
yours... i know its unfair but think about mother nature".... its just not going to happen.
In summary, we do affect the climate, by how much.... well theres a lot of debate on that and A LOT of bias statistics and information remember most
statistics can be shown both ways.
As a radio DJ said once... if we are actually having an effect on the climate then there is nothing we can really do about it. The level we produce as
a country is a drop in the ocean to china/india/etc and theyre only going to produce more. so if it is our fault, dont worry about it, theres nothing
you can do just sit pack and enjoy the party while it lasts...... (not totally in line with my own opinion btw)
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scootz
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:00 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by zilspeed
FFS lads.
All I said was, don't you think it's a bit chilly this winter
Nope... if anything I think it's been pretty mild so far!
It's Evolution Baby!
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Findlay234
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:01 PM |
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^^^^^^^
Sorry flak monkey didnt read yours before i wrote mine... sounds like were singing from the same sheet
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Findlay234
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:04 PM |
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Vostok-ice-core-p
etit.png
Ice core data
[Edited on 22/12/09 by Findlay234]
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scootz
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:04 PM |
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I don't have a problem with any pending disaster for mankind as I think we need a right good clear-out anyway. I do, however, get a little
weepy about the plight of Polar Bears!
I like Polar Bears I do!
It's Evolution Baby!
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:21 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by scootz
I don't have a problem with any pending disaster for mankind as I think we need a right good clear-out anyway. I do, however, get a little
weepy about the plight of Polar Bears!
I like Polar Bears I do!
na their just savage seal murderers
Fame is when your old car is plastered all over the internet
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smart51
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:22 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by wilkingj
Man is so arrogant that they THINK we can control the climate.
Oh dear! There's so much wrong with this opinion it is tricky to know where to start. Man does not think it can control the climate. No-one
has ever said this. Affecting something is not the same as controlling it. Since the invention of the steam engine, atmospheric CO2 levels have
almost doubled. Temperatures have risen in line with the increase in CO2 levels. Aims to reduce CO2 output to limit temperature rise is not
controlling the climate.
You do something. It affects something else badly. You stop doing the thing. Where's the arrogance in that?
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MikeRJ
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:27 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by twybrow
No one is arguing that the temperature of the earth has fluctuated widly over the years - simply, this is the first time when we have
fabricated evidence to show it is us making this change.
Fixed that for you!
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smart51
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:31 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Findlay234
As a radio DJ said once... if we are actually having an effect on the climate then there is nothing we can really do about it.
A radio DJ? You're quoting what a radio DJ says as somehow the truth? If we are affecting it by our actions the of course we can change what
we're doing.
quote:
Originally posted by Findlay234
The level we produce as a country is a drop in the ocean to china/india/etc and theyre only going to produce more.
Not true. We are one of the bad guys. We're not in the top 5 but that doesn't equate to a drop in the ocean. UK emissions per person
are about 4 times higher than China's, they just have 20 times more people. Remember also that some of their pollution is making stuff for us
so we are responsible for some of what they do.
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MikeRJ
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:33 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by twybrow
However, the levels of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere are totally unprecedented for many thousands of years. These are warming the
Earth and masking the natural cycles (e.g. the mentioned ice age we are apparently heading towards).
Could you ask her why the temperature changes do not track CO2 levels without completely mangling the data, or why the other climate effects that can
be found in peer reviewed journals are simply being ignored?
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scootz
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 02:40 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
quote:
Originally posted by scootz
I don't have a problem with any pending disaster for mankind as I think we need a right good clear-out anyway. I do, however, get a little
weepy about the plight of Polar Bears!
I like Polar Bears I do!
na their just savage seal murderers
The Seals are asking for it as they murder lot's of fish! Fish are the Polar Bears friends.
It's Evolution Baby!
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jeffw
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 03:35 PM |
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Central England Temperature series
From the Wikipedia article.....which specific piece of data indicates we are all doomed ? Maybe the hottest summer being 1976 (which I remember as we
had a drought followed by a very hard winter) or the coolest year being 1740.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature
HOTTEST
* The hottest year in the sequence was 2006 with a mean temperature of 10.82°C, a notable jump on the previous record, a tie between 1990 and 1999
with a mean of 10.63°C[3]
* The warmest spring (March, April, May) was in 1893 with a mean of 10.20°C, breaking the previous record of 9.73°C set in 1779.
* The hottest summer (June, July, August) was in 1976 with a mean of 17.77°C, breaking the previous record of 17.60°C set in 1826.
* The warmest autumn (September, October, November) was in 2006 with a mean of 12.62°C, breaking the previous record of 11.80°C set in 1730.
* The mildest winter (December, January, February) was in 1869 with a mean of 6.77°C, breaking the previous record of 6.53°C set in 1834.
* The mildest January was in 1916 with a mean of 7.5°C, breaking the previous record of 7.3°C set in 1796
* The mildest February was in 1779 with a mean of 7.9°C, breaking the previous record of 6.8°C set in 1739
* The warmest March was in 1957 with a mean of 9.2°C, breaking the previous record of 9.1°C set in 1938
* The warmest April was in 2007 with a mean of 11.2°C, breaking the previous record of 10.6°C set in 1865
* The warmest May was in 1833 with a mean of 15.1°C, breaking the previous record of 13.8°C set in 1758
* The hottest June was in 1846 with a mean of 18.2°C, breaking the previous record of 18.0°C set in 1676
* The hottest July was in 2006 with a mean of 19.7°C, breaking the previous record of 19.5°C set in 1983. July 2006 was also the hottest month in
the series
* The hottest August was in 1995 with a mean of 19.2°C, breaking the previous record of 18.7°C set in 1975
* The warmest September was in 2006 with a mean of 16.8°C, breaking the record of 16.6°C set in 1729.
* The warmest October was in 2001 with a mean of 13.3°C, breaking the previous record of 13.0°C set in 1969
* The warmest November was in 1994 with a mean of 10.1°C, breaking the previous record of 9.5°C set in 1818
* The mildest December was in 1974 and 1934 with a mean of 8.1°C, breaking the previous record of 7.7°C set in 1852
COLDEST
* The coldest year was 1740 at a mean 6.84 °C.
* The coldest ever month was January 1795 with a mean temperature of -3.1°C.
* Despite the fact that 6 new hottest recorded months have been set in the last 15 years, 60 years have passed since the last time a coldest month
record was broken, the coldest February in 1947 (mean temperature -1.9°C), breaking a record set in 1895.
* The coldest winter (December, January, February) was in 1684 with a mean of -1.17°C. The devastating winter centred on January 1963 was the 3rd
coldest (mean -0.33°C).
* The coldest summer was in 1725 with a mean of 13.10°C.
* Four months still have records that were set in the 17th century (March, May, June and September).
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twybrow
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 03:56 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by MikeRJ
quote:
Originally posted by twybrow
However, the levels of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere are totally unprecedented for many thousands of years. These are warming the
Earth and masking the natural cycles (e.g. the mentioned ice age we are apparently heading towards).
Could you ask her why the temperature changes do not track CO2 levels without completely mangling the data, or why the other climate effects that can
be found in peer reviewed journals are simply being ignored?
This is my answer:
it does track it....!
I'll see if she can reply too!
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Jasper
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 04:07 PM |
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Yes, climate has changed before, it always has and always will - what is different this time is the RATE of change. It is MUCH faster now than would
be the case if nature was taking it's normal course (unless we had a MASSIVE volcanic event or got hit by a meteorite).
And knowbody is arguing that the planet will survive humans probably short time on it, it will as will most other forms of life. But we are in at
serious risk of buggering up our civilisations as we know it. So yes, there will be rats and cockroaches and most plants etc etc around whatever we
do, but whether there will be a nice human civilisation like we know it now (or better) for our kids and their kids is a very different story, our way
of life is very fragile indeed.
If you're not living life on the edge you're taking up too much room.
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twybrow
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 04:15 PM |
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Well put Jasper.....
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jollygreengiant
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 04:18 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by David Jenkins
I remember when I were a lad, being told by my primary school teacher that it was dangerous to walk out onto the ice that was on the sea in Swansea
bay! That would have been around 1963...
Interestingly, even though it was VERY cold for quite a few weeks, cars and buses were still moving around the town.
The problem in the UK is that we're just not used to snow - other countries that get it every winter have developed techniques for dealing with
it. For example, in some parts of Scandinavia they don't grit the roads - they just go over with a snow plough to move the bulk of it. Cars
are expected/obliged to have winter tyres, and know how to drive in those conditions. I believe that fitting snow chains forms part of the driving
test in some regions...
Yep 1963  . I remember that fondly. I lived down at Bognor Regis ( where I was born). The snow was wonderfully deep (NOT as bad as
'49' I'm told tho). My mum took me for a winter walk down to the sea front. She even let me play (near to her on the snow on the
beach (stones). Unfortunately it/I came unstuck when I found out that I was actually playing on the snow, on the ice, OVER the sea. Thankfully it
wasn't deep, about a foot (the water that is) as I then went through the ice and my mum had to come and get me (only 4 at the time). The summer
later was also I bellieve very hot (got bad sunburn all over apart from where my trunks were).
As for the cars coping, well the cars in those days all had skinny thin tyres (comparatively) that cut through the snow rather than the modern wide
tyres that spread the load and sit on top of it. People also (mostly) traveled prepared for the snow with shovels, so that they could dig THEMSELVES
out of trouble. I believe it was that winter when my father had to go and find one of my sisters who had not made contact. He had to litterally dig
his way (with my brother) to her boyfriends house (about 10 miles) only to find her sitting comfortably infront of a warm fire with a phone box only
10 yards down the road.
Also over night people prepared for the next day by putting blankets over the screens and also (parafin) oil heaters under the sumps.
After that if you didn't have a car and public transport wasn't working then people reverted to shanksies pony and walked. To and from
work (which for the most part was relatively local usually a max of 4 - 6 miles) also to and from school for which the staff usually lived in the same
town as they were not at that time subject to abuse from the children and could meet out punishment unlike today.
Hang on I can feel a Four Yorkshiremen sketch coming on.......................................
Beware of the Goldfish in the tulip mines. The ONLY defence against them is smoking peanut butter sandwiches.
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Jasper
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 04:19 PM |
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The big problem is with an arguement like this, by the time the climate change lobby gets to say 'I told you so' it'll be too late
and what's left of us will be hiding out in some hovel somewhere dreaming of the good old days of electricity and cars and central heating!!
If you're not living life on the edge you're taking up too much room.
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Jasper
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| posted on 22/12/09 at 04:24 PM |
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quote:
why the other climate effects that can be found in peer reviewed journals are simply being ignored?
Everyone knows there's always two sides to a scientific argument, but it is very widely accepted by most experts in the field that humans are
seriously affecting global temperatures. There will always be those that disagree, (often funded by organisations with a vested interest in the status
quo) but it doesn't mean you (as a scientist) have to spend all your time refuting other peers arguments, they've probably got better
things to do, like lobbying for change.
If you're not living life on the edge you're taking up too much room.
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