Badger_McLetcher
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 06:04 AM |
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It kind of worries me how many people on the Leave side just seem to go with their gut against some kind of "foreign interference"- this
is a massive, non-reversible choice that will decide the course of the future of the country. To my mind that requires careful research, ignoring
politicians on both sides of the argument.
If disfunction is a function, then I must be some kind of genius.
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 07:11 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Badger_McLetcher
It kind of worries me how many people on the Leave side just seem to go with their gut against some kind of "foreign interference"- this
is a massive, non-reversible choice that will decide the course of the future of the country.
Yes, this, absolutely.
It puts me in mind of Churchill's comment that the best argument against democracy is a 5-minute conversation with the average voter.... you
give people the chance to make a monumentally important decision like this, and they vote according to a funny feeling in their little toe. 
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richardm6994
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 07:32 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
quote:
Originally posted by Badger_McLetcher
It kind of worries me how many people on the Leave side just seem to go with their gut against some kind of "foreign interference"- this
is a massive, non-reversible choice that will decide the course of the future of the country.
Yes, this, absolutely.
It puts me in mind of Churchill's comment that the best argument against democracy is a 5-minute conversation with the average voter.... you
give people the chance to make a monumentally important decision like this, and they vote according to a funny feeling in their little toe.
You've hit the nail squarely on the head there my friend. Does anyone really think the government, would allow the voting public to make this
monumental decision without knowing full well that the results of the referendum won't change a thing?
As said in my post on page 1; this referendum is simply smoke and mirrors and the outcome won't effect anything.
Like it or not, I feel we'll not be leaving the EU whatever the outcome of this referendum.
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cliftyhanger
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 07:39 AM |
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I think (to be honest I find all this difficult to understand) there are a few issues that people forget about.
Firstly, the UK is no longer controlling vast parts of the known world. Yes, we still have a large economy, and are "boxing above our
weight" in many areas, but I reckon so much of this could easily diminish if we leave the EU, and we will be down to a small island off the EU
who will be desperate for trade.
Secondly, the role of individual countries in terms of economies is diminishing rapidly. The real power in the world is business, and we need to
ensure we can maximise our attractiveness to businesses. And it seems most of them are keen to "remain"
Thirdly, even if we leave, because of said business that we will be chasing and trying to retain, we will have to offer concessions that could be
worse than what we currently have negotiated as we will loose a lot of our bargaining clout.
Lastly, I believe the EU is in desperate need of reform. This may happen if we leave, and end up creating the sort of EU that many of the
"leavers" want, but it will be too late for us. I doubt we will be invited back too soon....
And I am still unsure which way to vote....
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 07:55 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by cliftyhanger
And I am still unsure which way to vote....
Really?!
The arguments you list are pretty clear and convincing!
With regard to the very valid statement that it is business that is the real power in the modern world, how attractive do people think the UK will be
to major employers like Nissan, Honda, Amazon, etc. if we're not part of the EU?
Even 'traditionally' British, but now globally owned companies like JLR, Lotus, MINI, Bentley - they'd all get much better
tax breaks and trading terms if they're relocated to a country that remains part of Europe.
We risk becoming a complete backwater in business, service sector and manufacturing terms, if we leave, and that's really quite scary.
[Edited on 3/5/16 by Sam_68]
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 08:11 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994
As said in my post on page 1; this referendum is simply smoke and mirrors and the outcome won't effect anything.
Like it or not, I feel we'll not be leaving the EU whatever the outcome of this referendum.
The potential flaw in your argument is that you're assuming in the event of an 'out' vote that the rest of Europe would veto our
leaving.
Despite that fact that we're the second highest net financial contributor (which is certainly a situation that we need to negotiate strongly on
in future), I think you'll find that we have made ourselves sufficiently unpopular with the majority of other member states that
they''d be glad to see the back of us at any cost.
If that's the game our Government is playing, there's a strong chance that the rest of Europe will call their bluff.
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richardm6994
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 08:28 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994
As said in my post on page 1; this referendum is simply smoke and mirrors and the outcome won't effect anything.
Like it or not, I feel we'll not be leaving the EU whatever the outcome of this referendum.
The potential flaw in your argument is that you're assuming in the event of an 'out' vote that the rest of Europe would veto our
leaving.
Despite that fact that we're the second highest net financial contributor (which is certainly a situation that we need to negotiate strongly on
in future), I think you'll find that we have made ourselves sufficiently unpopular with the majority of other member states that
they''d be glad to see the back of us at any cost.
If that's the game our Government is playing, there's a strong chance that the rest of Europe will call their bluff.
What have the EU got to gain in us leaving? vs what do they loose if we leave? This is the reasoning behind my veto assumption.
popular or not, it's all about the money and I'll eat my hat if we end up actually exiting the EU.
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Benzine
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 09:05 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994
popular or not, it's all about the money and I'll eat my hat if we end up actually exiting the EU.
Agreed, I'd print this thread out and eat it if we leave
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 09:31 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994
What have the EU got to gain in us leaving? vs what do they lose if we leave? This is the reasoning behind my veto assumption.
What do they gain?
Put simply and plainly, they gain removal of our right of veto that has been used to block many progressive moves by the EU.
The reason that Europe hates us as much as the rest of the world is, ironically, the very thing that our jingoist 'outers' are fondest of
quoting; that at present we still punch well above our weight. Trouble is, we've a reputation of throwing those punches far too often,
without proper consideration of the consequences, and in inappropriate situations.
What do they lose?
They lose £8.5 billion net contribution against a total EU budget of £113 billion; so about 7.5% of their budget that they'd have to find
elsewhere... though of course their budget would also be reduced by our leaving, so it wouldn't be quite that much in practice.
If they're left with 27 member states, each would need to fork out another £0.3 billion or so, on average, to cover the shortfall. See figures
below to get an idea of how trivial that is in terms of overall government budgets and GDP's.
The 'out' argument seems to boil down to two things: sovereignty and money.
The former carries no weight for me as:
a) I'm not nationalistic and I don't see what's so attractive about our government, any more than an EU government, imposing
its will on the citizens and upon the governments of other nations, and;
b) The clout carried by that sovereignty will rapidly diminish if we're no longer part of the EU, in any case.
On the latter - and this is probably VERY IMPORTANT, so pay attention, kiddies  :
Our net annual contribution to the EU is about £8.5 billion per annum.
Our total government expenditure is about £772 billion per annum.
Therefore, for all the bleating about subsidies and gravy trains, the EU represents about 1% of our total government expenditure, which in turn is
only about 60% of our £1.3 trillion - that's £1,300 billion - GDP. So in rough figures, the financial 'cost' of EU membership is
approx. 0.6% of our GDP.
If anyone really thinks that they EU isn't worth many, many times that percentage contribution to our GDP in trade benefit (bearing in
mind that 5 of our 7 biggest trading partners are EU member states), they're living in cloud cuckoo-land.
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richardm6994
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 09:44 AM |
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Look, I'm not arguing the point of staying or leaving the EU, my opinion is that the government wouldn't take the risk of an EU referendum
unless the outcome was fixed.
My educated opinion without writing chapter and verse and boring everyone, is that the result of the EU referendum simply won't make the
slightest but of difference to our seat at the EU table because we'll either vote to stay or the EU will veto our severance agreement.
Those wanting out, the only way it will happen is through an EU collapse.
Not that it necessarily reflects my opinion, but if I was a betting man, the referendum will finish with a STAY vote anyway so my theory about the
veto will probably never be proven anyway..........off to william hill now
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mcerd1
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 09:47 AM |
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just to add a little to Sam_68's post above
If its an out vote, yes we will still be able to trade with the EU in one from or another. (on there terms of course)
BUT we will still have to follow near enough all the EU regulations to do so - only we won't have any say in what they are....
[Edited on 3/5/2016 by mcerd1]
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 09:56 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994...the government wouldn't take the risk of an EU referendum unless the outcome was fixed.
I think you credit our politicians with a lot more intelligence and foresight, and a lot less short-term political self-interest, than they deserve.
quote:
Originally posted by mcerd1
If its an out vote, yes we will still be able to trade with the EU in one from or another. (on their terms of course)
And naturally those would be the terms that they apply to non-EU member states; with import duties and other trade barriers.
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richardm6994
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 10:19 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
quote:
Originally posted by richardm6994...the government wouldn't take the risk of an EU referendum unless the outcome was fixed.
I think you credit our politicians with a lot more intelligence and foresight, and a lot less short-term political self-interest, than they deserve.
lol No, I just credit them with a lot more deviousness than most. Lies upon lies is a politician's ethos and they are masters at making
people believe they have a choice when really they hold al the cards.
[Edited on 3/5/16 by richardm6994]
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SJ
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 10:39 AM |
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The problem with the EU is that it is built on a lie. That lie is that you can have a single currency plus free movement of people, goods &
services and capital without transfer payments.
No individual country denies this to be true for their territory yet the individual governments of the respective countries keep telling us this
isn't going to happen. Fact is massive amounts of funding should be shifted, for example, from Germany to Greece. However the German people
wouldn't accept it.
Very few people in the South East of England complain when money is spent reinvigorating other parts of the UK. We need to be like this in the EU,
with a single government, if we want it to work.
Given that nobody accepts this we should probably leave which is a shame because it could have been great [maybe if we were in charge  )
[Edited on 3/5/16 by SJ]
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WallerZero
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 10:48 AM |
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I'm firmly in the remain side. It is the only side with evidence that can be even the slightest bit tangible. We can make forecasts based on
previous years of EU membership. It still is a complete unknown but at least we won't end up going belly up whilst our neighbours continue to
develop and grow.
As far as I can see with the out campaign, their arguments focus on not having to pay EU memberships or other fees, no mention of what benefits we
will lose. There is also the delusion that we will be able to continue as normal, trading with the EU making our own deals, travel as freely, control
our own borders etc etc. That surely won't happen because, oh wait, that's the benefit of being part of the EU?!
As already mentioned, we can vote in or out, won't make a difference as the EU have the final vote. We just end up looking like a bunch of tits
who are playing grumpy teenager who doesn't want to live with their parents anymore. We won't be a world player, we won't have
everyone begging to trade with us, we won't sit on our shores with machine guns gunning down immigrants. We'd continue much the same but
slowly be crippled by our own hilarious belief we are the greatest country in the world.
I think the whole referendum is a joke with both sides neglecting facts, trying to manipulate and scare monger people into voting their way. There is
no evidence either side is going to lead to a brighter or gloomier future, its all calculations based on assumptions. Maybe we should stop trying to
do our own thing and begin working together. We all advanced from tribal wars and became a nation, from there we became the EU, why take a step
backwards, I don't think it would achieve anything...
http://zachsgbszero.blogspot.co.uk/
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SJ
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 10:56 AM |
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quote:
I'm firmly in the remain side. It is the only side with evidence that can be even the slightest bit tangible. We can make forecasts based on
previous years of EU membership. It still is a complete unknown but at least we won't end up going belly up whilst our neighbours continue to
develop and grow.
As far as I can see with the out campaign, their arguments focus on not having to pay EU memberships or other fees, no mention of what benefits we
will lose. There is also the delusion that we will be able to continue as normal, trading with the EU making our own deals, travel as freely, control
our own borders etc etc. That surely won't happen because, oh wait, that's the benefit of being part of the EU?!
As already mentioned, we can vote in or out, won't make a difference as the EU have the final vote. We just end up looking like a bunch of tits
who are playing grumpy teenager who doesn't want to live with their parents anymore. We won't be a world player, we won't have
everyone begging to trade with us, we won't sit on our shores with machine guns gunning down immigrants. We'd continue much the same but
slowly be crippled by our own hilarious belief we are the greatest country in the world.
I think the whole referendum is a joke with both sides neglecting facts, trying to manipulate and scare monger people into voting their way. There is
no evidence either side is going to lead to a brighter or gloomier future, its all calculations based on assumptions. Maybe we should stop trying to
do our own thing and begin working together. We all advanced from tribal wars and became a nation, from there we became the EU, why take a step
backwards, I don't think it would achieve anything...
Problem is remaining is unknown as well. Look at Austria putting up border fences. The EU was designed to stop another war and the way it is going it
looks like it might be the cause of one.
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 11:14 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by WallerZero
Maybe we should stop trying to do our own thing and begin working together. We all advanced from tribal wars and became a nation, from there we became
the EU, why take a step backwards, I don't think it would achieve anything...
This is my fundamental belief, too.
The history of humanity has progressed from family groups of hunter-gatherers to where we find ourselves today, by means of ever larger
socio-political groupings.
Living, as we do, on a small planet with instantaneous global communication and a global economy, any attempt to reverse that process is nonsensical,
in the long term.
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Sam_68
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 11:47 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by SJ
No individual country denies this to be true for their territory yet the individual governments of the respective countries keep telling us this
isn't going to happen. Fact is massive amounts of funding should be shifted, for example, from Germany to Greece. However the German people
wouldn't accept it.
Softly, softly, catchee monkey!
This is the purpose of subsidies and development grants, to bring economies closer into line gradually, without making the richer areas feel as
though they've been suddenly pauperised.
It takes longer, but it does work.
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SJ
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 12:18 PM |
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quote:
quote:
Originally posted by SJ
No individual country denies this to be true for their territory yet the individual governments of the respective countries keep telling us this
isn't going to happen. Fact is massive amounts of funding should be shifted, for example, from Germany to Greece. However the German people
wouldn't accept it.
Softly, softly, catchee monkey!
This is the purpose of subsidies and development grants, to bring economies closer into line gradually, without making the richer areas feel as though
they've been suddenly pauperised.
It takes longer, but it does work.
You may be right. Political union by stealth? Maybe we should just have let Germany win WW2. At least their approach to political union was more
transparent & it would all have been sorted by now
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v8kid
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 01:35 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
The rest of the world (not just Europe) doesn't much like us because we're arrogant and isolationist.
Your answer to Europe not liking us is to turn our back on them still further.
Strange that statement does not match my experiences is it like 87.34% of all statistics? - made up on the spot!
I have always been extremely welcomed in the countries I have visited, France and Italy are naturally hospitable providing you make the effort ( just
like Britain) and China treats Brits like royalty in my experience! Are you sure you aren't talking about the states?
As for the vote I'm out despite liking our neighbors simply because I have more confidence in me and my country's (Britain's)
abilities. We do not need to cling onto the EU coat-tails we can trade on equal terms not rejecting them but respecting them as we wish to be
respected.
If we remain in the EU we become involved in EU politics and that's where it gets messy as individual's and countries have
"issues" and axes to grind. So the best solution is not sought but the best compromise. If we are out we can choose the solution which is
best for us not for a minority interest in a country far from our shores.
Having said that if we could play the game as well as France we would be better off in the short term but then our national psyche would change and we
would become different and in my opinion less.
I like the way I am, I'm grateful to this island country which has enabled me to build my self up from not a lot to quite comfortable enjoying
every moment of the journey and being able to spread my good luck in passing. I have never experienced the problems of class and envy some posters
allude to and I attribute this to a British upbringing in Scotland.
Interesting times.
Cheers!
You'd be surprised how quickly the sales people at B&Q try and assist you after ignoring you for the past 15 minutes when you try and start a
chainsaw
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jtskips
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| posted on 3/5/16 at 07:36 PM |
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eu just got to big and getting bigger , waiting for accessions are turkey ,Albania,Macedonia ,Montenegro,Serbia, no thanks ,hope the out vote wins
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cliftyhanger
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| posted on 4/5/16 at 03:55 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by v8kid
quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
The rest of the world (not just Europe) doesn't much like us because we're arrogant and isolationist.
Your answer to Europe not liking us is to turn our back on them still further.
Strange that statement does not match my experiences is it like 87.34% of all statistics? - made up on the spot!
I have always been extremely welcomed in the countries I have visited, France and Italy are naturally hospitable providing you make the effort ( just
like Britain) and China treats Brits like royalty in my experience! Are you sure you aren't talking about the states?
As for the vote I'm out despite liking our neighbors simply because I have more confidence in me and my country's (Britain's)
abilities. We do not need to cling onto the EU coat-tails we can trade on equal terms not rejecting them but respecting them as we wish to be
respected.
If we remain in the EU we become involved in EU politics and that's where it gets messy as individual's and countries have
"issues" and axes to grind. So the best solution is not sought but the best compromise. If we are out we can choose the solution which is
best for us not for a minority interest in a country far from our shores.
Having said that if we could play the game as well as France we would be better off in the short term but then our national psyche would change and we
would become different and in my opinion less.
I like the way I am, I'm grateful to this island country which has enabled me to build my self up from not a lot to quite comfortable enjoying
every moment of the journey and being able to spread my good luck in passing. I have never experienced the problems of class and envy some posters
allude to and I attribute this to a British upbringing in Scotland.
Interesting times.
Cheers!
I think it is "Britain" that other countries dislike. We seem to believe we are more important than perhaps we actually are, a hangover
from when we were the dominant world power a few hundred years ago. Things have changed....
Indeed, as individuals we seem to be welcome, though often regarded as tight-fisted. Likewise people from every nationality I have met have been good.
The exception being Russians (our hotel got shifted on holiday a few years ago, from a small, lovely reviewed place to a huge Russian-filled one.
Revolting manners, and eat anything. Sadly we got called home within 12 hours, but the sadness was offset by not having to remain in that hotel)
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v8kid
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| posted on 4/5/16 at 07:04 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by cliftyhanger
I think it is "Britain" that other countries dislike. We seem to believe we are more important than perhaps we actually are, a hangover
from when we were the dominant world power a few hundred years ago. Things have changed....
I disagree people associate other people with their origin just as you associate all Russians with your holiday experience. Also disagree about things
having changed we are still a world power 5th largest economy isn't it? Sure the mix has changed from manufacture to service/knowledge but we
are still a power to be reckoned with and need to start believing in ourselves.
The more we tolerate self denigration the more widespread it becomes and before you know it some socialist idiot believes it! (sorry but just
can't resist that Corby dig )
Cheers!
You'd be surprised how quickly the sales people at B&Q try and assist you after ignoring you for the past 15 minutes when you try and start a
chainsaw
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Sam_68
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| posted on 4/5/16 at 07:48 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by v8kid...we are still a world power 5th largest economy isn't it? Sure the mix has changed from manufacture to
service/knowledge but we are still a power to be reckoned with ...
You're confusing economic power with political power.
And we only maintain economic power for as long as we've got other economies to trade with... which is why the point I made above, that 5 out of
our 7 largest trading partners are in Europe, becomes kind of important. 
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jtskips
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| posted on 4/5/16 at 12:18 PM |
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In all our trades only 10% deal in the eu so no big deal there, yet all off us have have to abide by their rules sorry ,after double
checking it actually says exports to the eu only account for 10% of our economy
[Edited on 4/5/16 by jtskips]
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