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Building: up the courage for post thirteen thousand and one
posted on 15/10/09 at 07:17 AM
nuclear is not the answer - the uranium or whatever stuff that is dug out of the ground is of finite suppply and will run out.
remember when there is no fuel, then air travel will cease to exist - a journey of 50 miles will seem like a huge distance, like it was in the middle
ages so I doubt there'll be many complaints about a 400 mile range.
surely the answer is dig a really deep hole and make use of the heat in the earth core?
sugget we start buying shares in Spear and Jackson and other spade manufacturers now.
Battery cars don't work in any shape or form. They are heavy, use more energy to make and are less efficient than the old I/C engine. Clean at
source? Yes, if you ignore ozone production. Cleaner than Petrol? No. Not in any shape or form.
The buzz word now is local production of energy to eliminate transmission loss. If this works with power stations, why does it not work with cars? You
can't get much more local the two foot in front of you.
As for Genocide, I've always had a soft spot for early Judas Priest.
Old thread bump, just wondering what everyone thinks now? I think we're currently at this stage when it comes to electric vehicles:
Massive battery factories being built all over the place which will bring down the price of lithium batteries. New battery technology will increase
range (to the magical 200 mile range* which 95% of people don't need anyway)
*in your every day affordable car - yes tesla already can.
I still think hydrogen for transportation is mostly a silly idea. Yes, you could use renewable energy to generate and pressurize the hydrogen, but why
not cut out the middle men and store straight to batteries?
quote:Originally posted by Benzine
When do you think there will be as many electric cars as there are internal combustion?
I'm going to take a guess and say 2025 (50/50 ratio of ICE vs EV newly produced cars)
quote:Originally posted by Benzine
When oil consumption/production goes right down and all cars are electric/non I/C, do you think you will you still be able to drive your
kit/classic?
Yes. Steam died off a long time ago but there are still massive steam fairs everywhere.
My predictions:
50/50 ratio of new cars being internal combustion vs electric - 2025
EVs to link in to the national grid and provide storage and help smooth out demand (along with home packs)
Battery packs to start being commonly installed in homes in the next 10 years.
I agree about hydrogen; it's got a low energy density, requires high pressures, is leaky and is energy consuming to make in the first place. I
think batteries will continue to evolve as they are.
Biofuels may increase in importance but will never be the entire solution as it stands, we just couldn't make enough of the stuff. Maybe in the
future there may be giant production facilities using GM Algae fed off waste water etc., but it would take a long time to be phased into mass
production.
Electrical energy storage will continue to evolve steadily I think, and will probably be the way forwards in the medium to long run.
The key is that hydrogen, biofuel, methanol, batteries or fossil fuels are just different ways of storing energy. Where we get the energy from and
how cheap it is are the main deciding factors IMO. Pretty much all our energy originates from the sun, even fossil fuels- it was just collected and
stored a loooong time ago
If we had unlimited energy we could synthesise hydrocarbons from atmospheric CO2 and water, refilling the oil wells as a carbon repository... if we
had unlimited energy.
Renewables are important but the scope for development is finite, and they'll never be reliable. For me nuclear power needs to play a mix in
the medium to long term - but not as it is now.
Even the new fission reactors we are looking at building (light water pressurised) are based around designs which are not far evolved from the
earliest types, although they are undoubtedly far safer. This is because there has been very little research has been done on fission reactors in the
last thirty years... there are some interesting alternatives to the fuel rod\water cooling set up, such as standing wave or molten salt reactors.
Also in the medium to long term Thorium is a promising fuel source, especially combined with a molten salt reactor.
In the longer term Fusion will be cracked sooner or later. With ITER and the conventional research program it will be later, though I still have some
small hope hanging on the wildcards which are focus fusion, the polywell and the Lockheed Martin approach. Enough to keep an eye on them but not get
excited!
OK, essay completed... I'll get back under me rock
If disfunction is a function, then I must be some kind of genius.
quote:Originally posted by Badger_McLetcherPretty much all our energy originates from the sun, even fossil fuels- it was just collected and
stored a loooong time ago
I didn't realise until recently how coal was formed. Very interesting Link
In 2016 energy consumption in the uk in millions of tonnes of oil equivalent:
domestic 42
industry 24
transport 55
other 19
total 140 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE).
this energy comes from:
gas 43
solid fuels 2
petroleum 62
electricity 26
The 100% capacity of the national grid is 77GWHr, which over a year equates to 58 MTOE
since we already use 26 of this, if the whole grid were used to charge 'transport' using all the current capacity to best effect we could
charge 32 MTOE worth of energy with the current infrastructure, which is about 60% of the transport use. So to do 100% of the transport load would
mean the grid would have to find another 23 MTOE capacity which is about 40% increase in capacity. I doubt that we could actually charge cars using
'spare' capacity using 100% of the spare capacity, as most would plug their cars in on arrival at home or on arrival at work/car park or
whatever, so the cars cannot all be plugged in all the time. So practically I would say the grid would need at least 1.5 * "transport use"
added to current use, which would mean effectively doubling the grid capacity.
To supply the 58MTOE for transport from H2 would need 22 million T of H2. This turns to water (198 million tonnes per year) in the atmosphere. Water
is also a greenhouse gas, and you will get more rain where there as most cars, so cities would become very foggy!
LPG/mains Gas is currently well understood and available and easy to adapts cars to ( I have driven almost 300K miles in LPG converted cars). They
also provide less carbon per MJ, and in fact the USA has the biggest % reduction in its CO2 emissions of any country in the last few years (10%+) as
it is sourcing a lot of energy from shale gas.
Bioethanol/biofermentation type things are probably next best, but don't forget the waste products will need to have something done with them -
think of a few hundred million tonnes of the slime that comes out of the bottom of your compost heap if it is too wet! Like a lot of things, its ok if
you have 'small' use, but one you start producing in the millions of tonnes per annum range you have to think of the impact of the waste
on the environment.
I suspect to achieve anything meaningful we will all have to accept very much less powerful vehicles to reduce total transport energy use, and longer
journey times, but with the new proposals on limiting speed on motorways and in towns less power may not be an issue anyway!
quote:Originally posted by wilkingj
Not that I am advocating mass genocide etc etc.
I am !
Almost.
Mother Nature has ways of dealing with population numbers but humans are hell bent on finding ways to stop her.
So letting nature take its course is a start............................
Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so.................Douglas Adams.
Can't admit to having read the complete thread, but IMHO electric (battery) cars just won't work.
1. There's no infrastructure for charging/re-charging and who's supposed to pay for that?
2. People seem oblivious to the fact that most electricity to charge batteries creates pollution
3. What happens (cost) when the batteries need replacing [they will do] - it could de-value a 2nd hand car pretty quickly?
4. What happens (recycling) when the batteries need replacing [they will do]?
5. What happens when people start getting hit by electric cars that they couldn't hear coming?
6. Currently (and yes it may improve) batteries take significant time to re-charge and very little time to discharge
That said I'm not saying oil based fuels are the right thing, but the world currently operates that way. It would take quite some endeavour
(sp?) to alter that. Personally I can't see harmony between either manufacturers or governments capable of changing things pretty quickly and
for the better.
Maybe a little off topic, but an ex colleague bought a Twizzy in preference to another motorcycle, he asked if he could plug it in whilst at work, to
be told 'No that would be a taxable benefit we are not able to provide'
quote:Originally posted by NigeEss
Mother Nature has ways of dealing with population numbers but humans are hell bent on finding ways to stop her.
So letting nature take its course is a start............................
Interestingly I did read an article a few days back about increased numbers of assisted births due to narrowing of the birth canal. From a Darwin
point of view this wouldn't have occurred in nature as both mother and child would have died, however we have got round that particular editing
of the gene pool. Is that good or bad?
Anyway, back to cars now...
I am still waiting for a time when people don't have to commute as far. My job as an IT consultant has me doing many thousands of miles each
year, when in theory I could do all my work from the comfort of my own home. How does that make sense in the modern day? If I could work for companies
with a little less stubborn views of having to work in an office, I could reduce my driving down to entertainment purposes only.
must say that not allowing the Twizzy recharge is a bit mean - the battery capacity is 6kwH, so even at 100% charge a day under £100 per annum for
industrial rate electric, wouldn't even bother declaring it for tax on the guy myself - just ask him to drop a tenner in the charity box in the
canteen every couple of months.
The reality is there will be no huge take off unless the grid gets sorted and the government makes all commercial places put charging in all car parks
- after all 50% of people park roadside and there is no chance of people trailing cables across the pavement, so most could/would only charge at work,
or if some form of swappable battery was available, or the government put a couple of charge points on every lamp post I suppose (or you need to be
able to charge cars 100% in the time it takes to have lunch - would mean grid peak load would be 12-1pm every day. You would need to link all these up
somehow to allow charging (special charge card perhaps that enables the point and checks your car ID?). Personally I think this would be a better use
of the HS2 money, you can lay a lot of wire for 55.7 billion!
We looked at a smart charge point for work, it was about £1200 per port for the hardware, then install on top. To get to 50% of the 30million cars in
the uk able to charge at once (say), you would need to install 15million points * £1200 worth of these- approx. £18 billion + install costs which
would pretty much spend all the HS2 money.
Photo Archive
Building: It is an ex-Locost - it has gone to the IOW!
posted on 14/12/16 at 03:39 PM
The guy in this video makes a lot of sense (regarding the load on the grid):
Basically, he's saying that most people don't need to recharge their cars immediately they get home, so the computers can schedule it to
those times when the grid has a surplus (and stop the charging when the grid hits peak demand). Makes sense to me.
Nick205 - I'd love to hear a debate between you and Robert Llewellyn!
To declare my interests: I've just bought a diesel car, but in a few years time I shouldn't be surprised if I buy either a plug-in hybrid
or a fully-electric car. 99% of my journeys are just 50 miles a day - often much less. Once every month or so I need to drive further so, at the
moment, those types of car don't fit my needs (although a hybrid might). BTW: taxi drivers using Toyota Prius hybrids have recorded up to 1.5
million miles on the one battery pack, so maybe battery life isn't such an issue...
quote:Originally posted by David Jenkins
taxi drivers using Toyota Prius hybrids have recorded up to 1.5 million miles on the one battery pack, so maybe battery life isn't such an
issue...
I would have thought that was a very bad example, how many of those miles are actually off the battery and how many are regular petrol driven? A chap
at work had one, the only time it seemed to run off the battery was the first few yards out of the car park! Just enough for pedestrians to not hear
him moving around, but not enough to make a difference to the environment.
Having said that, the first company to come up with an electric black cab with swappable battery packs will make an absolute killing...
Photo Archive
Building: It is an ex-Locost - it has gone to the IOW!
posted on 14/12/16 at 04:03 PM
A few taxis in Ipswich are Prius - most of the time I've seen/heard them they've been on electric. The current ones have quite a small
capacity so you're probably quite right about the engine kicking in, but the type I'd probably get is the plug-in hybrid (not Toyota,
currently) - charge it at home, do 30 miles or so on the battery, with a few litres of petrol as a 'get you home' option.
Exchangeable battery packs might work, but can you really see enough harmony between manufacturers and governments for that to happen any time soon -
if ever? I doubt it!
The comment above about 1.5 million miles on a battery pack.....from my experience the rest of the car would have needed replacing several time over
to get anywhere near that sort of mileage.
As I've said on other posts cycling could really present an option for shorter journeys. Coupled with more sensible working regimes that could
(IMHO) make a big difference.
A bizarre example...there's a Tesco Express about 500m from our house. I walk there, but our neighbour drives there - we both come back with a
loaf of bread.
Photo Archive
Building: It is an ex-Locost - it has gone to the IOW!
posted on 14/12/16 at 05:18 PM
For 500m - I'd walk...
But you're correct about people not having a clue: my neighbours had solar panels installed a few years back, and tried to persuade us to do the
same (unsuccessfully). They were quite self-righteous about them... and every evening they leave their kitchen light on from dusk until about 11pm,
and most of the time the room is unoccupied. Sometimes their house is like Blackpool Illuminations, are they're only a pair of pensioners -
just think how much of their expensive investment's output they are wasting every day!
quote:Originally posted by Benzine
Old thread bump, just wondering what everyone thinks now?
My predictions:
50/50 ratio of new cars being internal combustion vs electric - 2025
EVs to link in to the national grid and provide storage and help smooth out demand (along with home packs)
Battery packs to start being commonly installed in homes in the next 10 years.
Old thread bump, just wondering what everyone thinks now?
Almost 5 years since my last post. It's looking quite different now. Obviously hydrogen is a dead duck, as predicted. The way I see it is that
the first gen of EVs is over and stage two is here. Better range, better battery management and cooling (Nissan Leafs being left behind with only
passive cooling, even with the second gen), better battery architecture, better cost per kWh, better response from the public as EVs prove themselves,
both in performance and cost savings. We've gone from sub 100 miles to 150+
Stage 3 is taking off now. Charging stations are being installed at a crazy rate. Better battery technology every day. That said, some of the charging
stations at places like motorways are on a par with internal combustion costs and are best saved for occasional/emergency use. Home charging with
adaptive tarrifs with smart meters are the best route for big savings.
With gargantuan battery factories coming online, the cost per kWh has, and will, continue to fall. The new MG all electric was quite a leap when it
comes to pricing and range. £20k for 200 miles was a game changer. What similar new cars will follow? It will only get cheaper and then the crossover
point will accelerate the cross over to EVs overnight.
Right now I'd go for something like a Hyundai Ioniq rather than a Leaf. A 28kWh Ioniq is matching a 40kWh Leaf. Just goes to show that
efficiency varies the same with EVs as it is with ICE cars. The Koreans are leading the way atm.
What are your predictions? Would you buy an EV now?
quote:Originally posted by Ninehigh
No matter how much anyone else will disagree and say "oh but you've got to get used to it" any alternative will need:
400 mile (minimum) "fuel range"
Fuel up time under 15 mins
Able to do 80mph all day
Why the 400 mile range? I have an 8 mile commute to work where I could plug up all day and my wife has about a 22 mile drive, but she could also plug
in while at work for 8 hours. It seems everyone is scared with a 40 - 50 mile range and all, but the truth seems to be that "most" people
don't really drive more than 20-30 miles round trip for daily use.
Yes, but it is not that unusual for people to need to make another journey to take or pick up kids shortly after arriving home and/or, need to go the
shops.
At other times people have long journeys to visit friends or relatives or to go on holiday - fully loaded and maybe towing.
I need a car that satisfies all my needs and can do what my current one can - I have had to arrive home from work, hitch the trailer on, drive from
Manchester to Cairnryan Port, then from Larne to Donegal, with lights, heater, air-con to dry the air and heated rear windscreen on, mid-winter, to go
away at Christmas.
I have even had an emergency where I and my wife got home from work, found an answerphone message that her uncle had died the day before and was being
buried at 11am the next day. Too late to get a flight that night and the first flight in the morning arriving too late for us to get across to Sligo.
There was just enough time to pack some clothes; get the kids to my parents; drive from Manchester to Holyhead; from Dublin to Sligo, arriving with 15
minutes to spare; from the church to the cemetery; from the cemetery to a hotel for a family meal; from the hotel to Belfast; and from Cairnryan to
Manchester. That would be impossible with an electric vehicle with short range and needing multiple charges en-route.
I've had a call from a friend, while I was at work, asking to pick him up and drive him across the country, as his mother had just died.
I have also driven from Manchester to Nottingham to Dover, Calais to Salzberg, swapping drivers and stopping for one night on the way and the reverse
on the way back or Manchester to the South of France.
I require my car to be large enough for a family of 5, plus luggage or shopping, capable of towing, capable of carrying large DIY items, capable of
long distances at little or zero notice, capable of refuelling in minutes and staying in places without power for charging.
I'd be happy enough with a small, electric, short range car for commuting and my wife (who does very few miles) having the family car, but she
won't drive a large car.
Photo Archive
Building: It is an ex-Locost - it has gone to the IOW!
posted on 21/2/21 at 09:12 AM
This video is something to consider:
It's a bit disingenuous in places - e.g. quoting Norway as a wonderful, clean place, while ignoring that most of the country's wealth
comes from oil and gas production, and it's a bit "shock horror" in other places, but on the whole it's not far off the
mark.
