SteveWalker
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 11:09 AM |
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New figures for last year show 15% (almost 91,000) more deaths than the 5 year average - in a year that was previously expected to have well below
average deaths.
Whether Covid-19 is killing lots of people directly or exacerbating existing conditions so that those kill them does not matter. It clearly is causing
a huge number of extra deaths.
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joneh
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 11:46 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by SteveWalker
New figures for last year show 15% (almost 91,000) more deaths than the 5 year average - in a year that was previously expected to have well below
average deaths.
Whether Covid-19 is killing lots of people directly or exacerbating existing conditions so that those kill them does not matter. It clearly is causing
a huge number of extra deaths.
It is, but we need to remember that no all of those deaths are caused by covid or exacerbated by covid, but a vast sizeable chunk are caused by the
response to covid. During the first wave, PHE attributed 52% of the excess deaths to Covid. So 48% were attributed to "other causes" i.e
Lockdown related issues, such as people not visiting A&E. Take heart attack symptom visits, that was down 5000 visits to A&E on average, and
on average has a 10% mortality rate if people don't visit hospital. So potentially 500 deaths are attributed to fear of visiting hospital.
Cancer diagnosis was down 20,000 cases just in April. These are not my figures, but from PHE.
This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.
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Irony
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 12:17 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by joneh
This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.
So you are effectively stating the the governments across the globe and their scientific advisors are all wrong and you are correct? Wow!!!!
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joneh
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 12:29 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Irony
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.
So you are effectively stating the the governments across the globe and their scientific advisors are all wrong and you are correct? Wow!!!!
No, are you saying that governments across the globe that haven't locked down and their scientific advisors are wrong and you're correct?
Wow!!
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Irony
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 01:10 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by joneh
quote:
Originally posted by Irony
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.
So you are effectively stating the the governments across the globe and their scientific advisors are all wrong and you are correct? Wow!!!!
No, are you saying that governments across the globe that haven't locked down and their scientific advisors are wrong and you're correct?
Wow!!
No I am not.
I don't believe that I am privvy to all the relevant and accurate information that would enable me to 'argue' either way. If I were
privvy to that knowledge it wouldn't matter because I know basically nothing about virology and epidemiology.
Surely by making such a statement you are hinting at the fact that you are an expert in epidemiology and virology. Also that you have access to
accurate, relevant and up to date information. Hence the 'Wow'.
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swanny
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 01:19 PM |
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i suppose to test out whether lockdowns actually save lives or not you'd need to run a control group, and have an entire country just decide not
to lockdown at all and see how many die.
the reality is, no one is able to do this. what we can see (from what i have read) is that even in countries that have initially tried this the death
toll becomes so high, and the rate of rise becomes so rapid that you have to lockdown.
i hear lots of people say lockdowns don't work. but having seen the evidence of when people observe them well, the numbers fall and this seems
to suggest that they do. (this doesn't take into account other 'at home' deaths of course)
the other thing is to look at countries that have locked down strictly right from the start versus those that thought it would sort itself out
shortly. Australia now have tiny amounts of cases and ours is surging. family in Oz cant believe the hash our country appears to have made of all
this.
they locked down hard at the start, before it was too late, they closed regional borders before it was too late and offered enforced quarantine for
any overseas arrivals, and guess what they hardly have any cases.
come to think of it, maybe we are the control group.....
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daviep
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 01:36 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by joneh
It is, but we need to remember that no all of those deaths are caused by covid or exacerbated by covid, but a vast sizeable chunk are caused by the
response to covid. During the first wave, PHE attributed 52% of the excess deaths to Covid. So 48% were attributed to "other causes" i.e
Lockdown related issues, such as people not visiting A&E. Take heart attack symptom visits, that was down 5000 visits to A&E on average, and
on average has a 10% mortality rate if people don't visit hospital. So potentially 500 deaths are attributed to fear of visiting hospital.
Cancer diagnosis was down 20,000 cases just in April. These are not my figures, but from PHE.
This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.
I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating
in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the
population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point
you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?
We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.
Davie
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
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joneh
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 02:00 PM |
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quote:
I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating
in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the
population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point
you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?
We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.
Davie
No, I'm not suggesting that at all. Looking at the Zoe data, peak infection for London was pre-lockdown. So Lockdown will have had very
little, if no impact on the current level in London hospitals. The zoe data shows another drop in infections everywhere (other than NW), so the trend
is heading in the right direction. I'm not advocating for a let it rip scenario, with proper shielding of the vulnerable and over 60 (which
we're not currently doing) and the remaining population continue as normal. Similar to the Swedish model, but with proper shielding of the
vulnerable. Many models suggest that a two tiered approach of shielding and carrying on as normal would save more lives due to the stark difference
in morbidity between these two groups and the threshold required for HIT.
I'm not an expert in virology, but I am an expert in test, particularly complex algorithm modelling. I can read and understand the modelling
& testing. We know the UCL modelling was appalling, which is what Lockdown was based off, why not look at other models or suggestions? There are
at least 22 peered reviewed papers on Lockdowns arguing that they have a low efficacy, published by publications such as the Lancet. They're
not Icke style conspiracy theories!
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Toys2
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 02:08 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by daviep
I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating
in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the
population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point
you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?
We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.
Davie
Absolutely, there's so many people coming up with over simplified solutions that don't hold up to scrutiny
Most of the country has various levels of tier or lockdown for the last few months and our health system is still getting overloaded with Covid
Patients, what would have happened with less controls?
I'm a firm believer that we could've had less draconian measures, if they were followed. As it is, we all have to suffer stricter measures
because there are idiots out there that don't even do the basics and the frustrating thing is, "hands face space" really
doesn't impact your quality of life
I normally don't comment because the deny'ers annoy me too much, that's not to say that we shouldn't challenge the data or
interpretation
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Toys2
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 02:16 PM |
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On the idea of ring fencing the vulnerable, so that everyone else can ride it out, that's just naive
One of the members of my direct family is extremely clinically vulnerable due to an immune deficiency, but otherwise healthy
So how would that work, would we lock them in a room whilst the rest of the house got covid and hope that we don't kill our family member? Or I
couldn't go to work and the kids couldn't go to school?
What about the 24 year old guy at work who damaged his kidneys playing rugby, so he can't go to work?
Another guy who has asthma, mild enough that none of us knew, but he's on the vulnerable list?
My company were very progressive when it first hit, they initially sent home all of the vulnerable people, we lost about 15% of our workforce, some
absolutely key people, of the 40 or so people, I'd say only 2 of them would you consider to be unhealthy
How would care homes operate if the staff can't come in contact with the residents?
What about visiting grandparents, that's be impossible?
The ONS estimated that for most of last year there was about 0.5 - 1% of the population who had Covid at any time, now it may be 2%
The likelihood of having it and passing it on to those few that I mentioned was low
Now imagine that it's allowed to run wild in the "healthy and young" population, the chances of passing it on to the vulnerable is
significantly greater
It's not practical to ring fence the vulnerable, if you have to interface with them
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joneh
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 02:21 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Toys2
quote:
Originally posted by daviep
I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating
in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the
population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point
you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?
We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.
Davie
Absolutely, there's so many people coming up with over simplified solutions that don't hold up to scrutiny
Most of the country has various levels of tier or lockdown for the last few months and our health system is still getting overloaded with Covid
Patients, what would have happened with less controls?
I'm a firm believer that we could've had less draconian measures, if they were followed. As it is, we all have to suffer stricter measures
because there are idiots out there that don't even do the basics and the frustrating thing is, "hands face space" really
doesn't impact your quality of life
I normally don't comment because the deny'ers annoy me too much, that's not to say that we shouldn't challenge the data or
interpretation
Or, those methods don't work particular well for a respiratory virus? They'd work very well for Norovirus, and if you take a look at the
PHE Norovirus Outbreak Reporting Tool you can see the massive impact washing hands and social distancing had. It shows that they are widely adhered
too. i.e. we can't blame "rule breakers".
Take a look at the dramatic effect it had below. I don't think its too much of a stretch to think the UK approach is wrong, maybe tiers &
lockdown don't work in the UK, rather than saying well we need to Lockdown harder or it's the rule breakers fault.
https://hnors.phe.gov.uk/
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coyoteboy
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 04:08 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by joneh
Or, those methods don't work particular well for a respiratory virus? They'd work very well for Norovirus, and if you take a look at the
PHE Norovirus Outbreak Reporting Tool you can see the massive impact washing hands and social distancing had. It shows that they are widely adhered
too. i.e. we can't blame "rule breakers".
Take a look at the dramatic effect it had below. I don't think its too much of a stretch to think the UK approach is wrong, maybe tiers &
lockdown don't work in the UK, rather than saying well we need to Lockdown harder or it's the rule breakers fault.
https://hnors.phe.gov.uk/
They work very well when adhered to. Not perfectly, but well enough to help keep a lid on it and give vulnerable folk a chance. Plenty of places where
compliance was heavily enforced and the population are more influencable (be that a good thing or not in other circumstances) have seen total
plummeting of cases and deaths right down to zero - we've never come close. It's common sense. It's an airborn virus, it has limited
ways to travel, and short distances. The problem is that just looking out the window I see 50% of the populating ignoring the rules. a further 25%
stretching them a little - 2m distance? well...1m, and I'm only passing for a short time. The one time I go into a pharmacy to collect a
prescription, 2 people walk in with no mask, one of them barges past me and grunts in my face.
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who
question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for
that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They
need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.
Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human race.
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daviep
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 04:15 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by coyoteboy
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who
question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for
that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They
need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.
Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human race.
Agree 100%
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
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Irony
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 04:22 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by daviep
quote:
Originally posted by coyoteboy
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who
question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for
that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They
need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.
Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human race.
Agree 100%
Agree 100%
My uncle lives in Marrakesh and he said during their lockdown if you were caught on the streets without a valid excuse you went to jail. Right there
and then - Jail. Total deaths 7700.
[Edited on 12/1/21 by Irony]
[Edited on 12/1/21 by Irony]
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joneh
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 04:39 PM |
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quote:
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who
question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for
that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They
need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.
Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human rac
So is it that we've not locked down hard, or the idiots fault? Because at no point have the government recommended a hard lockdown.
Either way, I 100% disagree with this. Prof Valance predicted in March that winter would be a disaster if we kept locked down and suppressed the
virus and didn't achieve some sort of degree of herd immunity. He said we should keep infections below the NHS threshold and not suppress it
completely. He's clearly not an idiot, but for one reason or another, the Government choose a different path (maybe they're the idiots you
referred too?).
I think it's extremely naïve to label anyone who suggests an alternative approach an idiot or that rule breakers are responsible and without
them this would magically go away. Is the director of Evidence based medicine at Oxford University an idiot? If he is, he's done well.
I'm not suggesting that Lockdowns don't work at suppressing the virus, they do. I'm just open to the idea that there are better
methods that could save more lives and completely suppressing the virus might not be the best method, as clear by our current situation.
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jps
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 04:49 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by swanny
i suppose to test out whether lockdowns actually save lives or not you'd need to run a control group, and have an entire country just decide not
to lockdown at all and see how many die.
the reality is, no one is able to do this. what we can see (from what i have read) is that even in countries that have initially tried this the death
toll becomes so high, and the rate of rise becomes so rapid that you have to lockdown.
By my understanding, this is the point. We have to implement restrictions to stop it getting as bad as it might. It's impossible to evidence
what you've prevented.
If COVID were allowed to spread unfettered, the hospitals would not be able to cope - so not everyone who needed treatment would be able to get it.
The problem is not that lots of people would die of COVID (although some might) but I suspect the larger problem is that people would then not be
saved from dying for all the 'routine' reasons people across the UK come close to death on a daily basis - but are usually saved.
This might be severe things like car crashes/accidents at work/unexpected heart attacks/asthma attacks, but I suspect probably also a whole host of
very benign things that 100 years ago might have killed people, but in 'normal' conditions in 2021, don't...
[Edited on 12/1/21 by jps]
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daviep
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| posted on 12/1/21 at 10:07 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by joneh
quote:
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who
question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for
that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They
need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.
Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human rac
So is it that we've not locked down hard, or the idiots fault? Because at no point have the government recommended a hard lockdown.
Either way, I 100% disagree with this. Prof Valance predicted in March that winter would be a disaster if we kept locked down and suppressed the
virus and didn't achieve some sort of degree of herd immunity. He said we should keep infections below the NHS threshold and not suppress it
completely. He's clearly not an idiot, but for one reason or another, the Government choose a different path (maybe they're the idiots you
referred too?).
I think it's extremely naïve to label anyone who suggests an alternative approach an idiot or that rule breakers are responsible and without
them this would magically go away. Is the director of Evidence based medicine at Oxford University an idiot? If he is, he's done well.
I'm not suggesting that Lockdowns don't work at suppressing the virus, they do. I'm just open to the idea that there are better
methods that could save more lives and completely suppressing the virus might not be the best method, as clear by our current situation.
Vallance was/is the mastermind behind the government response, which clearly failed because we are in a bit of a mess now. Vallance also predicted
20,000 deaths in March we are now over 80,000 so he didn't to well on that.
Here's an interview with Vallance in March where he hails the quality of our track and trace scheme, which was proven to be completely
inadequate, he also casually answers that around 60% of the population need to become infected for herd immunity to be effective, the host points out
that 1% of deaths of 60% of the population is a lot of deaths.
INTERVIEW HERE
Your argument is untenable, the expert who you have cited is the person who masterminded the UK response, either the response was incorrect or we did
not implement it properly or in other words people did not follow the advice, rule breakers as you call them. I believe it is actually both.
I believe the governments cavalier attitude at the beginning has had a huge effect on peoples perception of the situation we were in at the time.
Remember BoJo saying things like "we'll just take it on the chin" and boasting that he went to a hospital and shook hands with
someone infected? or Cummings taking a little jolly around the country. No wonder people will not follow governemet advice.
Regards
Davie
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
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nick205
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| posted on 13/1/21 at 04:56 PM |
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Wanted to add to this thread as my oldest friend of 40 years lost his faher to COVID-19 a few days before Christmas. His mother had it as well, but
stayed at home and symptoms were a runny nose and sore throat for a few days. Funeral on Monday next week, which I shall be going to in support of my
friend and his mum.
Another school friend recently lost his father to it as well.
The virus seems closer and more dangerous as time goes on!
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steve m
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| posted on 13/1/21 at 05:37 PM |
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Ive just found out that my next door neighbours, have got it, and isolating, so has one of there Sons and also the Sister from my Neighbours
And none of them have seen each other, in over a month, so not passing it through the family,
Well, me, and Mrs M, are staying in now, come what ever, !!
steve
Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at
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James
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| posted on 13/1/21 at 10:21 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by mgb281
There’s no doubt that the person who started this thread is one of those conspiracy believers or else the two funeral director friends are
incompetent. The number of excess deaths is real not imagined, the temporary morgues that are filling up with bodies is real not imagined. The whole
problem is that these are not the normal misguided people but are using underhanded means to push their agenda. Whether filming out patient
departments at night when they are deserted or the hospital cafes which are also closed due to government restrictions to try and persuade us that
hospitals are empty. These forums are being used to spread their dangerous rhetoric, fortunately there are more visiting this forum with more sense
and first hand knowledge of this devastating disease. Life will never be the same again but with the vaccines that are now being used it will get
better. The efficacy of the vaccines is more than 90% not 60% as has been stated.
As for complaining that you are volunteering to administer the vaccine and are made to undergo some training, so what’s the problem? My wife is a
practice nurse with over 45 years experience, she has been running flu clinics and children’s immunisation clinics for years and she had to undergo
training. She is working extra hours to help vaccinate more people despite being over retirement age, it’s no big deal it’s what she trained to do.
So if you are one of those that peddle lies and conspiracy theories go and join Donald Trump, who is equally mentally deficient!Probably I will be
thrown out of the forum for posting this but if everyone kept to the two metre rule, wore a face mask AND did not socialise in groups we would not be
in this position.
End of rant
Mate,
I don't think this is really necessary on a good forum full of really decent people.
I know you're fairly new compared to some of us and perhaps don't 'know' the characters involved but perhaps you could tone
down the rant a little?
Cheers!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses, behind the lines, in the gym and out there on the road, long before I dance under those lights."
- Muhammad Ali
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sdh2903
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| posted on 13/1/21 at 10:37 PM |
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This is a very emotive subject. I'm not going to add any fuel to the fire with any opinions. However one thing I've noticed is people seem
to be very intolerant of any opinion that doesn't align with their own.
Just because you don't agree with something doesn't make you or the other person wrong or right. Facts figures and news can all be twisted
to suit whichever rhetoric.
A differing opinion doesn't require name calling or rubbishing that person nor does it make them a "retard" or anything else.
Opinions are like arseholes everyone has one.
We need to stick together (but apart) stop sniping and look forward to a hopefully better second half of the year and beyond.
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James
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| posted on 13/1/21 at 10:45 PM |
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For those more interested in facts than rhetoric, I find More or Less to be a really excellent program and popping a few nonsense bubbles! 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd
Cheers,
James
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses, behind the lines, in the gym and out there on the road, long before I dance under those lights."
- Muhammad Ali
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russbost
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| posted on 14/1/21 at 08:12 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by sdh2903
This is a very emotive subject. I'm not going to add any fuel to the fire with any opinions. However one thing I've noticed is people seem
to be very intolerant of any opinion that doesn't align with their own.
Just because you don't agree with something doesn't make you or the other person wrong or right. Facts figures and news can all be twisted
to suit whichever rhetoric.
A differing opinion doesn't require name calling or rubbishing that person nor does it make them a "retard" or anything else.
Opinions are like arseholes everyone has one.
We need to stick together (but apart) stop sniping and look forward to a hopefully better second half of the year and beyond.
Seconded, this is as divisive a subject as Brexit was & that caused a few ripples!
The press/media has made this all the worse, just as it did with Brexit by sensationalising everything & invariably reporting from the worst angle
possible.
This group should be about engineering & helping one another with many & various car & non car projects & far better that we all pull
together for improvement than bitch at each other to no sensible end
Here's to 2021 being a LOT better than 2020, even if it's not got off to the greatest start!
I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator
headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names
furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours.
http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1
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NOTE:This user is registered as a LocostBuilders trader and may offer commercial services to other users
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joneh
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| posted on 14/1/21 at 09:13 AM |
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The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection
strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.
Feel free to Google the minutes.
[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[\Sarcasm]
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woodster
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| posted on 15/1/21 at 10:50 PM |
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I had it last April I can only tell you it’s the strangest illness I’ve ever had ... completely messed me up .. bad headaches, no taste or smell,
couldn’t breathe through my nose, chest had a burning feeling in my air ways, tooth pain, very bad fatigue and muscle pain, migraines and the oddest
thing a craving for sugary foods and drinks, weight loss and a very deep emotional depression..... it took me 4 months to start to feel right ... I
was very frightened and I’m not usually easily upset ...god help anyone who gets it really bad ... I still sometimes feel knackered
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