steve m
|
| posted on 15/1/21 at 11:10 PM |
|
|
Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am
bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!
My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant
I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,
Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand
Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at
|
|
|
|
|
daviep
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 12:23 AM |
|
|
Sorry to hear you are struggling Steve, one of the best things I have done to improve my mood is to stop reading & watching the news, we all know
that things are topsy turvy at the moment we don't need to be bombarded with negativity 24/7.
Read books, listen to some good music, take up brewing 
Life will get back to normal, to steal someone else's analogy "the blue is always there, the clouds are temporary"
Davie
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
|
|
|
daviep
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 12:55 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection
strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.
Feel free to Google the minutes.
[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[Sarcasm]
However the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty does not share her sentiments,
"On 3 November, Chris Whitty told the Science and Technology Select Committee that the declaration was "dangerously flawed",
"scientifically weak", and "ethically really difficult".[40][48][49] He explained that "Focused Protection" was
operationally impractical and would "inevitably" cause the deaths of "a very large number of people".
Davie
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
|
|
|
joneh
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 08:50 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by daviep
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection
strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.
Feel free to Google the minutes.
[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[Sarcasm]
However the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty does not share her sentiments,
"On 3 November, Chris Whitty told the Science and Technology Select Committee that the declaration was "dangerously flawed",
"scientifically weak", and "ethically really difficult".[40][48][49] He explained that "Focused Protection" was
operationally impractical and would "inevitably" cause the deaths of "a very large number of people".
Davie
At least lockdown is doing a good job and not letting the virus rip through care homes again... He did say that in November, maybe he'd
reconsider with the current care home death rate?
Meanwhile, here's very recent paper from one of the best universities in the world, Stanford, making a similar intangible argument that
lockdowns are statistically ineffective.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
|
|
|
snapper
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 09:35 AM |
|
|
I’ll try and not get emotive but it is difficult not to when the loudest voices are those that don’t believe there is a big problem.
There most certainly is...
Here are some little bits of privileged information that I get briefed on and I would think by now can be found widely.
The virus has mutated 27 times since we started mapping its gnome, the last 7 mutations were the ones that increased its ability to infect people, the
protein spikes have got more sticky.
33% of those infected with the more virulent strain will be a symptomatic and will not know they have it so won’t get tested and continue to spread
it.
The latest risk due to the mutation is picking the virus up from surfaces so whilst masks and distance worked well in the first lockdown we now need
to be particularly careful with hands so wash or gel before touching and wash or gel after because you will touch your eyes, nose, mouth, arse etc.
Hospitals are filling up fast, more frontline staff are getting infected and/or having to self isolate.
The infections may be dropping slightly due to lockdown but the peak of deaths will be middle of February
The dark prediction very early in 2020 of 100,000 seems very likely.
21st March 2020 to 1st Jan 2021
Expected deaths 373,537
Registered deaths 445,712
Excess deaths. 72,174
Covid related deaths 76,553
Every death is someone’s loved one
I eat to survive
I drink to forget
I breath to pi55 my ex wife off (and now my ex partner)
|
|
|
joneh
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 10:06 AM |
|
|
I don't think anyone on here is suggesting the problem isn't real or big... I'm simply parroting massive amounts of scientific
evidence that there is a better way.
|
|
|
daviep
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 10:40 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
Meanwhile, here's very recent paper from one of the best universities in the world, Stanford, making a similar intangible argument that
lockdowns are statistically ineffective.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
Replacing the word "estimate" with "guess" often puts a differnt tone on scientific papers, here is a quote from the very
first line of the method "We first estimate COVID‐19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation" So the whole basis of
the article is about the effect of something we guessed initially??
Real world observation proves otherwise and we live in the real world. New Zealand, Australia, Norway have all survived much better than the UK, they
acted decisively at the beginning.
I'm not going to continue this tit for tat, it's pointless, we obviously hold different opinions and that's OK.
Remember "stay positive, test negative"
Davie
“A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone.”
|
|
|
joneh
|
| posted on 16/1/21 at 10:59 AM |
|
|
quote:
Remember "stay positive, test negative"
With you on that. Agree to disagree. Take care.
|
|
|
James
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 12:13 PM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am
bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!
My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant
I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,
Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand
Sorry to hear that buddy.
Difficult times for all and I think it's fair to say most of us are having low points. I'm in a new-ish job which is challenging at the
best of times and to then hear I was going to have to try to work AND homeschool again (I have to go into the office every day so homeschooling a
5year old is not easy!) is a bit of added fun! 
Have you considered starting on a new car? Be a project you could do at home, keep you busy and would give a fun result for when it's finished
in time for summer when hopefully we'll be out of lockdown and you can get to go an enjoy it!
On the subject of exercise, personally I think it's worth the risk- the physical and mental health benefits are really high and outdoors the
risks of Covid are pretty low. I appreciate I'm a lower risk category so easy to say but it's seems worth getting out and about.
All the best,
James
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses, behind the lines, in the gym and out there on the road, long before I dance under those lights."
- Muhammad Ali
|
|
|
David Jenkins
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 12:32 PM |
|
|
Some of the rules and regs about exercise don't always work - we are under strict orders to only exercise within our own locality, but we live
in a small village. All of the footpaths around here are muddy quagmires, slippery and dangerous. If we stick to the very few road routes around the
village, we meet loads of people doing the same thing. Many of the road routes are also covered in huge puddles because the soak-away drains are
saturated.
Prior to the latest ruling, my wife and I would drive very early in the morning (8:00am) about 15 miles to a fairly remote beach, find 2 or 3 other
cars in the car park, walk around for 45 minutes, and never get closer than 25 - 30 yards from the 5 or 6 people we'd see there (but mostly 100
yards or more apart). We'd then get back in the car and drive home. Much, much more social distancing than wandering around the village.
The trouble is, you can't have global rules and make exceptions for particular circumstances... unfortunately. 
|
|
|
Toys2
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 03:23 PM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am
bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!
My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant
I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,
Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand
Sorry to hear that Steve, you sound like a really nice guy
I've been very low too, which isn't normally like me
I live with someone who's extremely clinically vulnerable, what with that and a stressful project at work and no real way to blow off steam,
things have been getting to me
I've limited my exposure to the news, I look at the raw data for cases etc once a day and have pretty much stopped arguing with people about it
(you can't fix the internet!)
Stress and depression affects people in different ways, my throughput at work (and home) goes down, something that works for me is to put some
projects on hold, focusing on things that need to be done
Last week, I revisited an old hobby, RC Helicopters, which I haven't done for years, this gave me a nice outlet to focus on
I can see some light with Covid (unless it takes a turn!) Within a couple of months, the most vulnerable should be vaccinated, then by April, all Over
50S and vulnerable, that should make a big difference
Then over the next 4 or 5 months, the greater population should be vaccinated, as long as the vaccine also helps to reduce transmission, that with
continued social care, we should have some return to normality
Take care
|
|
|
jps
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 04:12 PM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant
I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
I can sympathise, my wife is very cautious/fearful of COVID - there have been times over the last year when she has been very cross with me, simply
because i've gone to the village shop! She still tells me to wash my hands every time I come back in the house...!
We're both late 30s and essentially not particularly vulnerable, if anything I am probably at greater risk (asthma), but we have both reached
the understanding that we each need to do what we feel is best for us to get through it (for me - that has to be getting outside, and some degree of
'normal' living / for her - it's been following all of the guidance strictly and going further than advised, like wearing a mask
outside when with others - during the heady days of the rule of 6, not meeting with family on Xmas day, etc...).
The vaccination is clearly here, and coming out fast (in fact, my wife recieved her first jab yesterday - through her 'critical' worker
status she got a last minute call when they realised that some of the doses being given at our local hospital would go to waste otherwise, due to
no-shows), I am optimistic it's now largely a question of waiting for a few short weeks, after a VERY long year!
[Edited on 18/1/21 by jps]
|
|
|
steve m
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 05:17 PM |
|
|
All valid points, and this whole scenario is driving me nuts!! and i know this is going to sound so wrong, but i need some male bonding, talking
about cars, football totty, etc etc,
So in November i rejoined my local RC flying club, not flown since 2011, and when i could (wife paranoia) went flying for a couple of hours,
Brilliant fun, got me out of the house, mixing with some good old freinds and some new ones, all great, but the BMFA have now closed all flying sites,
and withdrawn the insurance, and the stuff i fly, you cant just pop down a local park, so thats a waste of money, !!
And EVERY time i get home, have to be surgically cleaned before im allowed back into the house, its bloody embarrasing being start naked, covered in
dettol, more so just my pride, but standing in the middle of the front garden, its not funny !!
Joke obv, but trust me the hand cleaning thing is not a joke
I am 60, with Asthma and lung problems, (never smoked) im on the list for when the over 65's get pricked, and that could be within a few
weeks
Ive also got a couple of guitars, and have learnt a few tracks all since last May, and never done it before, but some days, im just not in the mood to
play
I watch minimul TV, as ive said before many many times, reading, just isnt for me, i can read, but have yet to find something that gets me interested
This boredom is increased with Winter, its dark, cold wet, misreble, and we all know, that has its own issues
I know all of who are sensible, and doing the right thing will come out the other end, and say, god that was a bad year, tut, just like all of us who
witnessed the 1976 heat wave, we always refer back to that one, as it was by far the hottest
We just have to live a very weird way, and think we are in the film Groundhog day, !!
steve
Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at
|
|
|
Mr Whippy
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 06:00 PM |
|
|
We're out all the time for walk, cycling, shopping etc. So long as you don't touch anyone and keep your distance, just washing your hands
and using sanitiser will keep you safe.
It's not like covid is lurking in bushes waiting to jump you.
|
|
|
swanny
|
| posted on 18/1/21 at 07:21 PM |
|
|
hi steve,
like you i'm really missing car chat with mates. I've seen my blokey weekends gone, Le Mans, Nurburgring, Blackpool trips, Silly bike ride
meetups, all sorts.
Getting a walk at present is tricky as there are so many people walking near us. I'm lucky enough to live five minutes walk away from a river
and believe me its busier walking down the river bank than it would be approaching a footy match at half past two! so I'm getting the bike out
instead as the roads are quieter. or going out early morning or evening.
we could organise a Locost zoom call? i'd be happy to chat about cars online for a bit?
whatsapp groups seem to be good for me as a place to share silly/funny rude jokes etc too
|
|
|
Mr Whippy
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 01:34 AM |
|
|
How about building a wooden plane kit? That will keep you busy. Then you can fly it once the clubs open up again. I'm sitting with 3 planes
ready to go and the club only 1/4 of a mile from my house. Torture.
|
|
|
Slimy38
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 08:33 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by woodster
I had it last April I can only tell you it’s the strangest illness I’ve ever had ... completely messed me up .. bad headaches, no taste or smell,
couldn’t breathe through my nose, chest had a burning feeling in my air ways, tooth pain, very bad fatigue and muscle pain, migraines and the oddest
thing a craving for sugary foods and drinks, weight loss and a very deep emotional depression..... it took me 4 months to start to feel right ... I
was very frightened and I’m not usually easily upset ...god help anyone who gets it really bad ... I still sometimes feel knackered
Probably drifting off subject a little, I've had pretty much all those symptoms over the last few weeks, but a very recent test came back
negative. My taste and smell is still messed up (I have a permanent smell of cigarette smoke even though no-one in this house or the neighbouring
houses actually smoke). To be honest I hope I've had it and I can be fairly safe, that way I know my family is safe as well.
My cousin got a positive test just before Xmas so she had to spend it alone, her daughter went to her ex-husbands for the duration. A couple of
neighbours have had it now (We're on a street watsapp group to stay in contact), they seem to have recovered with no more ambulances turning up.
Thankfully the older people in the street are doing ok, I still see them pottering about in their respective gardens.
I am starting to wonder whether the cure is worse than the disease though, I have two children that are home schooling but we can see it's just
not as good as being in class. My primary school aged son is definitely missing the social interaction, and my college aged daughter is doing a BTEC
that should be far more hands on than it is.
|
|
|
roadrunner
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 08:54 AM |
|
|
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.
|
|
|
joneh
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 09:14 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.
I'd get a different doctor. The PCR test will find anything in anyone.
|
|
|
russbost
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 09:41 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
quote:
Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.
I'd get a different doctor. The PCR test will find anything in anyone.
Whoaaa, sorry but that's waaay wrong, if tested on day 1 then the PCR test will NOT identify Covid ie 100% false negative, it's only by
around day 4 the test becomes even vaguely accurate for false negatives, thios is from the Governments own paper (GOS)
"A recent study [6] combined results from seven studies (>1300 swab test results associated with
time of disease onset) to create a model of the false negative rate for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays
against time since infection. Their model suggested that in the first four days of infection (presymptomatic phase) the probability of a false
negative in an infected person decreased from 100%
on day 1 (i.e. a false negative was certain) to 67% on day 4. It then decreased to 38% on day 5 (day
of symptom onset) to a minimum of 20% on day 8 of infection (i.e. one in five people still give a false
negative result despite having experienced three days of COVID-19 symptoms). The false negative
rate then increased from day 9 (21%) to day 21 (66%). Point estimates and confidence intervals are
shown in Figure 1 [taken from 6]."
I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator
headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names
furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours.
http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1
|
NOTE:This user is registered as a LocostBuilders trader and may offer commercial services to other users
|
joneh
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 10:22 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by russbost
quote:
Originally posted by joneh
quote:
Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.
I'd get a different doctor. The PCR test will find anything in anyone.
Whoaaa, sorry but that's waaay wrong, if tested on day 1 then the PCR test will NOT identify Covid ie 100% false negative, it's only by
around day 4 the test becomes even vaguely accurate for false negatives, thios is from the Governments own paper (GOS)
"A recent study [6] combined results from seven studies (>1300 swab test results associated with
time of disease onset) to create a model of the false negative rate for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays
against time since infection. Their model suggested that in the first four days of infection (presymptomatic phase) the probability of a false
negative in an infected person decreased from 100%
on day 1 (i.e. a false negative was certain) to 67% on day 4. It then decreased to 38% on day 5 (day
of symptom onset) to a minimum of 20% on day 8 of infection (i.e. one in five people still give a false
negative result despite having experienced three days of COVID-19 symptoms). The false negative
rate then increased from day 9 (21%) to day 21 (66%). Point estimates and confidence intervals are
shown in Figure 1 [taken from 6]."
OK that's surprising and very high, although one point is the UK is (apparently) only testing people with symptoms. A more recent study in
Canada showed the FNR rate to be 9.3% with a very high (100K) sample size. Even this strikes me as massively high. So combine this with a high FPR
and a high FNR, what is the actual point of testing at all?
Assuming people with symptoms are told they're not infected and carry on going to Tesco this contributes further to the argument that Lockdown
will NEVER work.
|
|
|
Mr Whippy
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 10:36 AM |
|
|
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.
|
|
|
joneh
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 10:44 AM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.
No. That would even make Fergusons UCL model inadequate, and that was proved to be massively incorrect.
|
|
|
russbost
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 01:12 PM |
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.
With a survival rate of well over 99% Covid is about as comparable to the plague as comparing apples with chalk!
I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator
headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names
furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours.
http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1
|
NOTE:This user is registered as a LocostBuilders trader and may offer commercial services to other users
|
David Jenkins
|
| posted on 19/1/21 at 01:25 PM |
|
|
Talking of the plague... in spite of things changing over time, some things remain the same...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210107-the-432-year-old-manual-on-social-distancing
|
|
|
|
