Hi all

I ask the question, and am being deadly serious, as i found out earlier, that my ex Brother in law, and a close family friend, who both "were"
working at Funeral Directers in different parts of West Sussex, as the demand for their services, are no longer needed, sacked, or laid off, its still the same ending

Both given similar reasons, that the expected demand, did not manifest itself

I found the first one, very very strange, as my ex BIL has done this for 5 ish years, a job he enjoyed doing ?????? not for me !!

But to find two people i know "in the business" both laid off work within a week, i find this extremely odd

I am shielding, due health problems, and will continue to do so,

Just wonder what my friends on here think

steve

Well, we lose around 500-550,000 a year on average, so I doubt 2020 figures will actually look a great deal different to that as the vast majority of Covid deaths in the early part of the year were old or ill people who probably weren't going to live the year out - if funeral directors were taking on extra staff then I think they'll have been sadly disappointed so far.

With the lack of treatment of many cancer patients & many others with non immediately life threatening illnesses, plus the fact that you are simply unable to book a Dr.'s appointment now unless you are actually dying on the spot; I suspect demand may be much higher in subsequent years

In answer to your Q I know one person who has defo had it, antibody test +ve (aged around 55 in good health) he said it was like a nasty bout of flu, knocked him off his feet for a couple of days, & 2 other possible cases who've not had antibody tests & weren't tested earlier in the year. one around 60 took him out of circulation for about a week & one late 20's obese, but didn't really have much in the way of problems with it, just high fever & dry cough

If you're at risk then obviously doing the right thing in shielding, but for the rest of society, maybe if they could all stop acting like dickheads pretending it's gone away, we could get back to having some sort of life

Two friends have had it, both ended up in intensive care, both had strokes. One 44, one 47. No health conditions prior (ok, one was a stone or two over weight).

Two more friends had it. Both very late thirties and very fit (run, play sport every week etc). Both described it as the worst flu they've had. Knocked them out for a week each. Proven by having the antibody test later (so it's possible they just had a bad flu and caught it another time then was asymptomatic).

Slightly concerned for my "turn" & fingers crossed I'm asymptomatic.

Regarding deaths, I'd anticipate a bumper winter but imagine it's "quiet" now with lots of people having died early. I also wonder if the limits on funerals is having an effect - less need for multiple cars, people not working buying cheaper funerals?

[Edited on 22/9/20 by MikeR]

I suspect its more that they cannot organize lavish funerals, just restricted to a few mourners.

edit:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54234511
Coronavirus: Six challenging months for undertakers

[Edited on 21/9/20 by gremlin1234]

Although i echo, the lack of people allowed to attend a funeral, My Brother in law, (ex) said, that this year has been the quietest he has known
in the 5 years hes been in the Funeral business, and in the past had more than 5 Funerals a day to work at/with with in the past, some days they have only had one, yet employed more staff this year, to deal with the crisis, but have now reduced the numbers to less than half, that they had 5 years ago

There could be a lot of Funerals being conducted with out any one there,

Perhaps the Funeral trade has increased significantly due to demand

I had an Aunt who on her death certificate says she died of Coveid, but her Daughter is fighting this, as My Aunt was in a very poor health, before she ever got to the Care home, and only stayed there 5 days before dying


Now if i am listening to the news, (i do) the North is pretty close to a lockdown, yet London, one of the most heavily populated Capitals in Europe is not even on the radar and the figures, are very low compared to the rest of the country,

I dont think we are being told the truth,

steve

I've had it. Well I think I have. My little boy came down with a very high temperature, a cough and was generally quite ill. He's 3. I slept on his bedroom floor for most of the night. A week later I started feeling bad. High temperature and a bad chest. For me the kicker was the sore throat/swollen glands. Swallowing was like being kicked in the neck. Broken glass in the throat. If my symptoms had gotten worse local hospital was on standby to pick me up. However I started feeling better. This about the 30th March with no tests available back then.

Keep yourselves safe, it was horrible and extremely frightening to turn the telly on and hear the death count. I have two boys 6 and 3.

Mrs was more or less asymptomatic. She has the all the nursing ability of a brown bear to boot.

Again, keep yourselves safe.

Well not proven but i had the worst flu symptoms I have ever had in early December and now looking back i had all the exact symptoms of covid but strangely did not pass it on to family, it took a few weeks until i felt well again.I have recently seen instances in the press of people having it late December and suspect it may have been here in December.
Paul.

Well I don't know anyone that's had it.
I'm not surprised though with where I live in North Lincolnshire.
Can't imagine that it won't be long before I know someone who will get it the way positive tests are going.
Keep safe all. 🤞

Hi Steve,

I know three friends who have had it they think, around march they had serious flu symptoms that they have never had before, but thankfully they got over it within a week, also my sons household of group friends probably had it too seeing as one of them is a nurse who had tested positive and they had all felt bad for a couple of days, these youngsters ( mid 20's) kept away from everyone and worked from home prior to getting the symptoms so it must have come back with the nurse.
I sadly travel around the southeast most of the time and including in and out of London, But i do my best to keep away from other people while travelling even when on trains or busses.

It does make me angry though seeing people who refuse to wear their masks apart from when they pass an official on public transport

Jason

I know three people who have had it: one hospitalised.

I know 4 and of more. Of the 4, one in his late 20s felt absolutely awful for a week and weak and tired for a couple more, one in his 50s has been ill for a fortnight so far, one in her early 60s died and the fourth is a child in my son's class who has just had it confirmed - we are awaiting the results of a test on my son, as he has been unwell and had a temperature over the weekend. We really hope he has not got it, as he is bound to pass it to his two brothers and it will be pretty well impossible for myself and my wife to avoid it ... with me having health conditions that put me at higher risk and my wife officially being classed as vulnerable.

My Daughter has had it - she was unwell (heavy flu-like) for around 10-14 days - an an NHS worker she had an antibody test which confirmed this.
My Son has identical, but more sever symptoms at the same time. They live away from us but both visited for my 50th, the week before lockdown....yes I have guilt.
My wife had similar symptoms just after they visited, including loss of smell, taste...She self isolated from me in the house!

I had nothing. I had a ‘finger prick’ antibody test for work and nothing showed up on that....

[Edited on 22/9/20 by JC]

2 friends (a couple) had it. One had very mild symptoms and the other couldn't shake it off and needed ICU support. His service and wake was yesterday.

friend of ours had it, elderly neighbours son and daughter both had it, close friend is an ICU sister, (20 years plus in ICU) saw plenty of it. exhausted both physically and emotionally by the strain of it all. other friends in the NHS so traumatised by it that they will leave the NHS once this is over.

its hard for us to take things seriously when we don't have any direct experience of it, and the luck of the draw means that some of us may go all through this and not know anyone with it, while others lose several family members.

I've had it*. Worse than any flu I've ever had and different. So much fluid on my lungs it felt like drowning at times. Worst 3 nights I went to bed thinking, if this is any worse in the morning I'm calling an ambulance. One of those nights I even lift the back door on the catch so they'd be able to get in. Fortunately it felt slightly better when I woke up each time.

My girlfriend who's a surgeon, had all here clinics/ops cancelled, was working on covid wards instead. She's now back, trying to catch up and has already had patients who's disease has progressed and beyond being curable.

*Wasn't tested but given symptoms and I'd just returned from Italy/France...

I'm a member of the EAKCC, one guy who is retired got it and died, his son got it as well with the same result. Thankfully no one else I know has caught it.

Mom in law was sent into hospital dehydrated ..... caught Covid 19 in there..... they sent here to a care home to recuperate..... care home phoned an ambulance to take her to hospital- while the delivering ambulance was still there.
Was phoned numerous times whilst she was in hospital to say that she had less than a couple of hours to live.....
But the choice was to fully gown and mask and not be identifiable, and spend the last hour(s), with her ....and if this was done, then to self isolate, and potentially miss her funeral .....

She died alone .....

At funeral, restricted numbers and no wake.

Yesterday a work colleague was telling me Covid 19 wasn't real, and only a conspiracy theory .... strange thoughts till he heard these details.

I work in retail and customers moan about wearing a protective mask for 30 mins !

Keep safe all ..... It's just the worst thing.

quote:

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Originally posted by paulf
Well not proven but i had the worst flu symptoms I have ever had in early December and now looking back i had all the exact symptoms of covid but strangely did not pass it on to family, it took a few weeks until i felt well again.I have recently seen instances in the press of people having it late December and suspect it may have been here in December.
Paul.

---

I had it in February. Milder than a mild cold, although it did make me very tired for a day or two. Had the antibody test and came back positive.

My mom had to go in for cancer removal and got tested as a matter of course, turns out both her and her boyfriend had antibodies. The last time they were ill was in December and with similar symptoms as mentioned below, a really bad flu that had them basically knocked out for a few days. That's when they think they had it but no way of knowing for sure. They could have had it later and been asymptomatic.

My wife and my son have both been tested after having symptoms, both came back negative. So we're just waiting our 'turn' so to speak. We all have bad flu over the winter anyway, I can time it almost to the day when I will have to take a day or two off. My wife does the flu jab to reduce it's effects now.

(oh, and the cancer got removed with the expectation of full recovery, so I'm counting my blessings twice on that one!)

quote:

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Originally posted by Memphis
I had it in February. Milder than a mild cold, although it did make me very tired for a day or two. Had the antibody test and came back positive.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Slimy38

quote:

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Originally posted by Memphis
I had it in February. Milder than a mild cold, although it did make me very tired for a day or two. Had the antibody test and came back positive.

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How do you get an antibody test? I don't have symptoms so I'm not going to cause a burden on the already stretched service, but I would be interested to know whether my December seasonal flu was possibly a bit more than normal.

---

heard on the radio this morning examples of patients having caught it more than once. (tested both times, and DNA found to be different both times)
only individual cases at the moment though so could just be a rare anomaly.

Yep, my mum caught it early on in March. This was before lockdown and when the daily deaths were less than 10 per day. Her symptoms were extreme tiredness all day, no appetite, and a high temperature. No cough. She wasn't even sure if she had it to be honest, and her GP didn't seem to think it was CV-19.
Advice at the time was just to self isolate, there was no testing at that stage. So she just stayed indoors alone for 2 weeks and did not get better. Eventually the cough symptom came and breathing became difficult. She phoned her GP who called an ambulance for her. She was taken to hospital by ambulance and was able to phone me and my brother before being sedated and put on a ventilator. I think she expected to be in overnight.
She was on ventilation in an unconscious state for 6 days before she died on 2nd April.

She was a very active 70 year old with no pre-existing health conditions.



I also have a friend of mine, a 38 year old woman, who also got CV-19 early on in March. It completely drained her and she was also confined to her bed, and didn't have the energy to do anything. Her recovery has been extremely slow and she is still suffering now with extreme tiredness, weakness, and breathlessness.

Four deaths of friends or business contacts , two of them were relatively young, add another relatively young person who was quite severly ill but not hosptalised and months later is still not back to full health.


[Edited on 22/9/20 by britishtrident]

quote:

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Originally posted by SteveRST
Yep, my mum caught it early on in March. This was before lockdown and when the daily deaths were less than 10 per day. Her symptoms were extreme tiredness all day, no appetite, and a high temperature. No cough. She wasn't even sure if she had it to be honest, and her GP didn't seem to think it was CV-19.
Advice at the time was just to self isolate, there was no testing at that stage. So she just stayed indoors alone for 2 weeks and did not get better. Eventually the cough symptom came and breathing became difficult. She phoned her GP who called an ambulance for her. She was taken to hospital by ambulance and was able to phone me and my brother before being sedated and put on a ventilator. I think she expected to be in overnight.
She was on ventilation in an unconscious state for 6 days before she died on 2nd April.

She was a very active 70 year old with no pre-existing health conditions.



I also have a friend of mine, a 38 year old woman, who also got CV-19 early on in March. It completely drained her and she was also confined to her bed, and didn't have the energy to do anything. Her recovery has been extremely slow and she is still suffering now with extreme tiredness, weakness, and breathlessness.

---

The way Covid-19 deaths are reported has been very uneven accross the Countries of the UK and the healthboard regions of England. In Scotland we got possibly the best reporting and daily situation reports. The pattern of deaths in Scotland was pretty similar to the rest of the UK with carehomes being hit hard during the early months of the pandemic.

This the latest National Records for Scotland report it shows very clearly the pattern of excess deaths since January https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/covid19/covid-deaths-report-week-37.pdf

One friend on ours had it on a ventilator for over 10 weeks.

Another has had "long term COVID" and is still unwell 4months on.

We know of at least 2 deaths in care homes, heartbreaking as they had only just gone into care.

So yes it is real.

General cases of flu deaths have reduced during the lockdown so this may in part explain the lack of deaths... It's complicated!

Also, things like air quality are better, and that's responsible for a lot of deaths.

People have traveled less ect so there are many factors that go into this.

I suspect we will be in for a long winter as work and schools continue and the weather draws in i.e. tradtional Flu condtions of bad ventilation and close quarters.


Dan

[Edited on 22/9/20 by Bluemoon]

Let's put it this way -I've got a lot less elderly patients than I used to....

And don't forget the issue isn't just the direct deaths, it's also that during the peak time admissions for heart attacks, strokes etc drastically reduced so greater mortality there too (it's not that they weren't happening, they just weren't being admitted). And cancer care has been adversely effected across the board so there also unavoidable deaths will go up. In general practice we're having to somehow manage patients without access to radiology, diagnostic testing (like ECGs etc) which obviously creates issues.... Also don't forget some deaths won't be attributed to Covid due to false negative tests. Both the PCR and the antibody tests have a fairly significant false negative rate. I know quite a few patients who clearly have had it (100% classical symptom complex) and yet tested negative.

Even if you look at excess death charts that doesn't give the full picture as during lockdown there were fewer fatal RTAs as there was a lot less driving (amongst other stuff) going. Apart from those who were concerned their eyesight had been effected..... Hmmmm.

The whole issue of numbers of deaths gets more complex the closer you look at it. But as a very rough guide in my local authority area about 120 people die every week in a normal spring time, at the height of the first peak 180 people were dying every week. You also have to take into account that in lockdown there were less deaths from traffic accidents, industrial accidents and street violence.

Firstly, to my Friend of a few years Steve Rst, I am so sorry to here of your news, very sad
and i dont have any words of encouragement, because there aren't any !

Thank s for the replies, its interesting to hear a spectrum from around the country and sorry to hear that quite a few of you have had possibly in some cases this dreaded virus, At no point am i belittling the whole thing, as i am definitely not !

I am a firm believer, that something is out there, and its not nice, and to a lot of us older generation, and with other medical history, this thing is a killer

What i dont understand is the way our idiotic Govenment, have allowed this whole thing to carry on, and certainly the more intelligent people, and i include myself and family, have done exactly what we are supposed to do, we dont have parties, we dont mix, infact no one outside of our bubble has entered our house, not even the kids and grandkids, nor have we gone to the beaches, or parks, shops etc

So why are we entering what looks like a possible 6 month lockdown ??
Because retards and pondlifes dont want to wear a mask, go to the pub/club, and beaches shops etc,

So it looks like i may as well go into hibernation now, as i am bored out of my skull, i cant work, and wouldnt anyway, and what with winter just around the corner, and its getting darker earlier, this is going to be the worst winter ever,

I still dont believe we are being told the whole truth,

But please to all my colleagues keep safe

steve

quote:

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Originally posted by steve m
What i dont understand is the way our idiotic Govenment, have allowed this whole thing to carry on

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Like in the rest of the UK and other countries some of the critical decisions made right at the start were wrong but in Scotland we were treated like grown ups we had daily briefings from the First Minister and Chief Medical Officer. The briefings were fact filled and questions taken and answered efficently . The rules in Scotland such as the 2 meter rule were always more on the side of caution than those from Westminster and they weren't suddenly changed with a few days. The result was our deaths came right down earlier and stayed down for longer.

[Edited on 22/9/20 by britishtrident]

quote:

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Originally posted by jps

quote:

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Originally posted by steve m
What i dont understand is the way our idiotic Govenment, have allowed this whole thing to carry on

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They might have mishandled it, but the reality is that they can't stop it - just like they can't stop 'flu. The best they can do is try and stop it killing people at a significantly higher rate than it will anyway (either directly, or indirectly). Which is basically what they do with 'flu each year...

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quote:

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Originally posted by BenB
In general practice we're having to somehow manage patients without access to radiology, diagnostic testing (like ECGs etc) which obviously creates issues....

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I certainly know someone who has found a lump, been diagnosed with breast cancer, had numerous scans, started treatment, been monitored and changed treatment - all during lockdown.

My father (under a different trust) has also had scans and monitoring for a possible heart problem (fortunately ok) during the same period.

Certainly routine clinics and ops have been cancelled or delayed, but investigation and treatment of potentially serious and time-critical conditions has continued.

quote:

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Originally posted by Mr Whippy

quote:

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Originally posted by BenB
In general practice we're having to somehow manage patients without access to radiology, diagnostic testing (like ECGs etc) which obviously creates issues....

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why's that? as I've had both xrays and two ECG's only couple of months ago (did also get one when the Ambulance came but that's another stupid my fault story...). My GP did have to send me to the hospital for them but they were plenty busy

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quote:

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Originally posted by SteveWalker
I certainly know someone who has found a lump, been diagnosed with breast cancer, had numerous scans, started treatment, been monitored and changed treatment - all during lockdown.

My father (under a different trust) has also had scans and monitoring for a possible heart problem (fortunately ok) during the same period.

Certainly routine clinics and ops have been cancelled or delayed, but investigation and treatment of potentially serious and time-critical conditions has continued.

---

Fortunately I haven't had it or know anyone that's had it. I'm aware there's been a few cases in local care homes though and feel for those unable to visit at such times. Workwise it's been work from home since end of March this year - I'm sure the same for many.

Very unusual times!

Firstly I'm slightly shocked to hear that a couple of you have lost close members of family, no words can make it easier but I can tell you time is the healer.

As we're about to go into second lockdown, I'm fed up of criticism from media and those in politics about the governments actions or inactions.

WTF can anyone do? Lock downs are temporary measures to relieve hospital admissions, once they are over the disease is still there and cases again ramp up. Lock downs are killing people's livelihoods but are saving lives.

Alternatively do nothing, businesses continue but people die. You could say the same people will die anyway should they be infected after lock down is over.

It's a no win situation that at the moment the government is putting priority on people's lives.

The only consolation we have is that the disease is survivable in the majority of cases, it could well have been that it was totally fatal. Not a cheery thought but the next one may turn out to be that. Anyway, enjoy your last 4 days of "freedom".

One thing I find strange is the fact that schools and universities are not shutting, at least two of the local colleges in Cambridge have had outbreaks with multiple victims as well as loads of other universities. Breeding grounds for the virus or what?

Absolutely, but what government wants to be responsible for a lost generation where they pulled the schooling etc. It is political suicide to keep them shut despite the impact. Shut the schools and you stop people being able to work, and damage the children. It

I'm not sure the logic works, and I'm really not convinced there's science to back it up, I think it's just a political response. Seems like each school is a super spreading location and all other mitigations are just making up for being able to have kids in schools, not actually fighting the problem.

Much of schooling could have gone online, with teachers streaming live lessons and getting pupil feedback and all done to the normal school timetable, giving children a structured school week, even if at home. My children's school has done a very limited version of that, covering only a few lessons a week, when whole years were told to self-isolate.

The majority of households probably already have PC/laptop and tablets, plus broadband, that would have allowed one device per child and the government could have funded sufficient loan laptops and broadband/4G for those that did not have it.

My wife is classed as vulnerable and I have an elevated risk. She has been unable to work for a couple of years and I have been able to WFH since March, so the only big risk in our household is our three children being in school and particularly the packed, one hour bus journey each way. Unfortunately due to staggered start and finish times for the different years, me driving them and waiting around would prevent me from working and taxi fares for the six staggered journeys per day would be unaffordable, so it's the bus or nothing.

Even without broadband/internet most homes have a TV , lessons could be broadcast?

For those that think the UK mortality rate is no different this upset to other years...

When considering deaths registered in 2020 to date (1 January to 31 July) in England, the age-standardised mortality rate for deaths registered in 2020 was significantly higher than the mortality rate in each year back to 2009.
Looking at deaths that have occurred so far in 2020 and were registered by 8 August, 330,590 deaths occurred in England (35,123 more than the five-year average for January to July) and 20,967 in Wales (1,096 more than the five-year average).

I know personally of a couple who got it and the man of the family (big roughty toughty ex, soldier, Pridon Officer, Met copper) said it was bad, his misses was taken to A&E twice and described it as drowning in air.
Colleagues have told me about their experiences and one particular co-worker had his whole family infected (he is fit 7.6 bleep test) and said his wife and father were very unwell.

quote:

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Originally posted by rusty nuts
Even without broadband/internet most homes have a TV , lessons could be broadcast?

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You have to remember that many families do not have good or even any broadband far less a computer, they are still very much a luxury. Many families cannot afford for a parent not to work to stay home and look after the kids, otherwise they would not be able to pay the bills and keep a roof over their heads.

This is going to push people very deep into debt, poverty and homelessness. God knows what the suicide rate will be this Christmas but I bet it will be the highest ever recorded.

There's no easy answers here, no winners, just lots and lots of pain.

I live in an area of low incidence of Covid, North Norfolk. It has really disappointed me to see many thousands of people not from this area (yes it is a holiday area but I have never seen so many) who have not been following the guidelines for social distancing or facecoverings etc. A pity as the covid cases have climbed in line with visitors. We have avoided the holiday hotspots all year as a result and are still safe. My son, who is a teacher, and lives in Cumbria has tested positive following a pupil in class testing positive a few days ago. He seems to be doing ok but is drained of energy and has no sense of smell but no other symtoms so is isolating at home. His partner is a GP so she and her daughter are doing likewise.
I am really looking forward to the end of this awful Covid situation when it is under control and normal can resume, I hope it is soooner than later

We've got decent broadband. However I'm not sure how it would cope with all four of us doing online meetings whilst accessing online material. Luckily my kids are in primary so 'low' risk in theory and i'm happy for them to be there.

Uni students need to now stay in uni. If they come home they'll just create a super spreader event across the country.

Someone i know very well up north looks at xrays for a living. A few months ago 1 in 10 xrays were a covid lung. He says anyone who doesn't think its serious should look at the xrays he looks at. Its bad. He's now looking at 1 in 2 xrays with Covid.

He's gone from being "its ok, just be careful" and probably mixing too much through the summer to having the gates on his drive way locked. I've gone from frustrated he's not following the rules properly to concerned how worried he is.

On the original question - my youngest sister (a secondary school teacher), her husband and their 2 kids have now had COVID-19. Holed up in their house for 3 weeks. Fortunately they seem to be OK now and suffered sore throats, lss of taste and temperatures. Others will and have suffered much worse with it. Still the only cases amongst my own family and friends that I'm aware of.

I wait to see what occurs over the coming lockdown period and thereafter. No doubt here'll be an unfolding of results in the coming years when it emerges that different countries and governments chose to measurein different ways!

Does anyone follow Dr Michael Yeadon?

He's of the impression that CV-19 did it's pass back in April and the pandemic finished at the end of summer. He believes, almost 100% of the current cases are false PCR tests. A couple of things back up his argument:

Deaths from respiratory illnesses are currently lower than the 5 year average for this time of year.
ITU occupation capacity is normal (82%) for this time of year.
No coronavirus has ever had a "second wave".
If it were still a pandemic, why is the capital not seeing 500+ deaths a day.
NHS triage figures (999, 111) do not correlate with the increase in cases, and actually show less people are using triage services now than September.
A PCR "pseudo pandemic" has actually happened before, although on a smaller scale in the USA with Whooping Cough. Some smart cookie decided to change the test away from PCR and every single case was a false.
Scottish PCR labs have shown a repeatable weekly pattern in % positive PCR tests, which eventually doubles Friday & Saturday. It then drops right back down again Monday morning. The lab receives a deep clean on Sundays. His point was that to cope with the demand, the labs have lots of junior testers that even needed guidance on pipette usage. So much so, one lab head, Dr Julian Harris, quit citing 'chaos'.
Two thirds of the PCR tests, don't actually distinguish on coronavirus from another.

He's not saying that CV doesn't exist, just it's now an endemic virus that is barely in circulation within the community. Most likely only present in significant amounts within hospitals.

Those are his main points, that I can remember, wondered if anyone else has seen this and has any thoughts?

my thought about him is I think he is a paper hat

quote:

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Originally posted by ianhurley20
my thought about him is I think he is a paper hat

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I think he means something that rhymes with that!

quote:

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Originally posted by rusty nuts
I think he means something that rhymes with that!

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I became aware of him a few days ago and wanted to read his paper. Not got round to it yet. He's actually a proper scientist with some background of this and had held high ranking jobs in decent companies (can't remember who but think Pfizer or rouche type companies)

He's also got strong viewed that our modelling and base assumptions are wrong, eg no one has immunity in Jan 2019 - he thinks some people will have. He's not happy with the make up of the advisors in sage.

All of this is interesting, but I'm curious how you reconcile with other facts, like the x-rays.

Also don't forget we lost a lot of people this year earlier than we should. That means they can't due this winter. That has to be taken into consideration when looking at numbers

Plus, throughout Europe, the second wave seems to be the Spanish mutation - so it can't simply be false PCR tests, as a different strain is being found.

quote:

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Originally posted by SteveWalker
Plus, throughout Europe, the second wave seems to be the Spanish mutation - so it can't simply be false PCR tests, as a different strain is being found.

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quote:

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Originally posted by MikeR
I became aware of him a few days ago and wanted to read his paper. Not got round to it yet. He's actually a proper scientist with some background of this and had held high ranking jobs in decent companies (can't remember who but think Pfizer or rouche type companies)

He's also got strong viewed that our modelling and base assumptions are wrong, eg no one has immunity in Jan 2019 - he thinks some people will have. He's not happy with the make up of the advisors in sage.

All of this is interesting, but I'm curious how you reconcile with other facts, like the x-rays.

Also don't forget we lost a lot of people this year earlier than we should. That means they can't due this winter. That has to be taken into consideration when looking at numbers

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quote:

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Originally posted by joneh
Does anyone follow Dr Michael Yeadon?

He's of the impression that CV-19 did it's pass back in April and the pandemic finished at the end of summer. He believes, almost 100% of the current cases are false PCR tests. A couple of things back up his argument:

Deaths from respiratory illnesses are currently lower than the 5 year average for this time of year.
ITU occupation capacity is normal (82%) for this time of year.
No coronavirus has ever had a "second wave".
If it were still a pandemic, why is the capital not seeing 500+ deaths a day.
NHS triage figures (999, 111) do not correlate with the increase in cases, and actually show less people are using triage services now than September.
A PCR "pseudo pandemic" has actually happened before, although on a smaller scale in the USA with Whooping Cough. Some smart cookie decided to change the test away from PCR and every single case was a false.
Scottish PCR labs have shown a repeatable weekly pattern in % positive PCR tests, which eventually doubles Friday & Saturday. It then drops right back down again Monday morning. The lab receives a deep clean on Sundays. His point was that to cope with the demand, the labs have lots of junior testers that even needed guidance on pipette usage. So much so, one lab head, Dr Julian Harris, quit citing 'chaos'.
Two thirds of the PCR tests, don't actually distinguish on coronavirus from another.

He's not saying that CV doesn't exist, just it's now an endemic virus that is barely in circulation within the community. Most likely only present in significant amounts within hospitals.

Those are his main points, that I can remember, wondered if anyone else has seen this and has any thoughts?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by coyoteboy

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh
Does anyone follow Dr Michael Yeadon?

He's of the impression that CV-19 did it's pass back in April and the pandemic finished at the end of summer. He believes, almost 100% of the current cases are false PCR tests. A couple of things back up his argument:

Deaths from respiratory illnesses are currently lower than the 5 year average for this time of year.
ITU occupation capacity is normal (82%) for this time of year.
No coronavirus has ever had a "second wave".
If it were still a pandemic, why is the capital not seeing 500+ deaths a day.
NHS triage figures (999, 111) do not correlate with the increase in cases, and actually show less people are using triage services now than September.
A PCR "pseudo pandemic" has actually happened before, although on a smaller scale in the USA with Whooping Cough. Some smart cookie decided to change the test away from PCR and every single case was a false.
Scottish PCR labs have shown a repeatable weekly pattern in % positive PCR tests, which eventually doubles Friday & Saturday. It then drops right back down again Monday morning. The lab receives a deep clean on Sundays. His point was that to cope with the demand, the labs have lots of junior testers that even needed guidance on pipette usage. So much so, one lab head, Dr Julian Harris, quit citing 'chaos'.
Two thirds of the PCR tests, don't actually distinguish on coronavirus from another.

He's not saying that CV doesn't exist, just it's now an endemic virus that is barely in circulation within the community. Most likely only present in significant amounts within hospitals.

Those are his main points, that I can remember, wondered if anyone else has seen this and has any thoughts?

---

There's a bunch of points there that are seemingly false. I know folk who work in labs, they're not in chaos. Maybe some are, but not all.

There's no way a decent lab manager would not see such an easy to spot correlation between results and cleaning and not eradicate it. That would suggest universal incompetence in most labs.

UK PCR tests have 95% specificity. That means that if 1 in 60 folk test positive, only 5% of those (0.016 * 0.05 = 0.0008, or 0.08%) are false positives, hardly swaying the numbers I don't think?

Not really sure what previous coronaviruses have to do with a new one. They have similarities, but they're not the same thing - those with huge fatality rate will kill off hosts too fast to allow a second wave. Those with really really mild symptoms just become endemic with no-one even testing, let alone caring. The nuances of virology seems to be looking at these differences, so to say none of that matters seems a bit odd.

Deaths from respiratory illnesses are lower than average? Well a) a ton of people have already died that would have from other respiratory illnesses and b) there's global mitigations in place to reduce general contact and improve cleanliness, not that surprising that fewer folk are catching and dying from other respiratory illnesses I suppose.

The thing I find interesting, being someone with no expertise in this field and therefore no real right to comment, is that while I can see a government not following scientific advice, and I can see scientists arguing, science works by looking at all the viewpoints and getting consensus. If someone brings something credible to the table that seems more likely, any credible scientist would see it and agree. I have known some scientists. They're not generally the type that shy from controversy - you'd expect to see more dissent in the ranks if these points were credible.

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quote:

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Originally posted by joneh

quote:

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Originally posted by SteveWalker
Plus, throughout Europe, the second wave seems to be the Spanish mutation - so it can't simply be false PCR tests, as a different strain is being found.

---

I don't think the false positives have any dependency on strain, although there is an inherent FPR of 0.4 - 0.8%. He's saying most of the false positives are coming from the handling of the samples and some of the tests just check for a coronavirus, rather than a specific strain like SARS-COV-2.

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quote:

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Originally posted by ianhurley20
We have avoided the holiday hotspots all year as a result and are still safe.

---

A close family friend of 41 old has tested positive on saturday, , and now her 71 yr old Mother, today and if friends Father gets a hint of it, he is dead, as a Copd and asbestos asthmatic

I will continue with the not going out, and am fortunate to be able to retire at 60.04 its not what i wanted to do, but its the safest thing for myself and family, and i am on the shielding list

The bizarre thing is, even with out any pay coming in since August, neither is much money being spent, so it proves that even when i was working, it was costing a good percentage ( i reckon 20%) just to get to work, train or car, feed and water myself while at work. etc etc

The depressing thing now, is winter, cold wet damp, and dark all the time! so cant even go in the garden,

steve

quote:

---

Originally posted by nelmo

quote:

---

Originally posted by ianhurley20
We have avoided the holiday hotspots all year as a result and are still safe.

---

See, to me that is the most sensible solution that everyone should have just stuck to from day 1 - if you are over 65, at risk because of other health conditions or just worried, STAY AT HOME. Do NOT go to work, the pub, a restaurant, football match, concert, garden centre etc, etc, etc. Do NOT visit friends, relations - get your food delivered.

Yes, your life is crap BUT everyone else can get on with their normal lives and we won't have people moaning about not wearing face masks (whatever dubious protection they provide) and the other mass panic issues.

Bottom line, the virus has killed 0.07% of the UK population. You have a 99.93% chance of NOT dying (even better if you're under 65) - why are people so scared?

Yes, this is harrowing for those who experience death in the family and my condolences to you BUT for every heart-breaking news story of a person dying in hospital, how about the story of 3 families (45,000 deaths, 120,000 redundancies) where the only breadwinner has been made redundant and now cannot afford rent/mortgage or to feed their kids?

I don't know anyone who has died or even had the disease (although several had 'something' but not been tested) BUT I have seen 4 local shops close on my high street - I dread to think what their lives are like right now. My brother (in Florida) has lost his job (luckily, he married well :-) ) and my brother-in-law has had his full-time job reduced to 3 days a week, although he is not confident even that will last as he has nothing to do (works in advertising).

Yes, furlough will help some but money doesn't grow on trees - if you thought the austerity after the 2008 crash was bad, we 'aint seen nothing yet.

I don't blame the government for this - they are just responding as best they can. The problem IMO is the media/FB/Twitter etc - scared the crap out of people with over-hyped clickbait to make a buck. Everyone loves a disaster :-(

---

Its come very close to me in the last ten days , we've had 2 positive tests at work, my daughters boyfirend is aslo
positive ( young & fine , no symptoms), and my elderly Uncle contracted it in Hospital and died last weekend- so yes,
its as much of a threat as you've been told it is.
.

Hi Ian,

If no one ever challenged or offered a different opinion we'd still live in caves. All I've done is ask peoples opinions on what was stated by Dr Yeadon. You dismissed it with a flippant comment and offered no further useful contributions, where others have contributed with very reasonable counter points. I personally like to explore and understand a wide range of views and evidence before I make my own decision. Some of Dr Yeadons points are facts, some can be explained and linked to other issues.

I'm not debating here, I'm listening to other viewpoints and making informed decisions. I could just blindly believe what Boris tells us, however taking anything a politician tells you as gospel truth, is frankly nuts.

I am not going to waste my time responding again - but - have you actually had someone who you knew die from this - and their son as well - and maybe a family member be infected as well?
Then some expert says - CV-19 did it's pass back in April and the pandemic finished at the end of summer. - really?
Get real!!

quote:

---

Originally posted by ianhurley20
I am not going to waste my time responding again - but - have you actually had someone who you knew die from this - and their son as well - and maybe a family member be infected as well?
Then some expert says - CV-19 did it's pass back in April and the pandemic finished at the end of summer. - really?
Get real!!

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by nelmo

quote:

---

Originally posted by ianhurley20
We have avoided the holiday hotspots all year as a result and are still safe.

---

See, to me that is the most sensible solution that everyone should have just stuck to from day 1 - if you are over 65, at risk because of other health conditions or just worried, STAY AT HOME. Do NOT go to work, the pub, a restaurant, football match, concert, garden centre etc, etc, etc. Do NOT visit friends, relations - get your food delivered.

Yes, your life is crap BUT everyone else can get on with their normal lives and we won't have people moaning about not wearing face masks (whatever dubious protection they provide) and the other mass panic issues.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by SteveWalker

quote:

---

Originally posted by nelmo

quote:

---

Originally posted by ianhurley20
We have avoided the holiday hotspots all year as a result and are still safe.

---

See, to me that is the most sensible solution that everyone should have just stuck to from day 1 - if you are over 65, at risk because of other health conditions or just worried, STAY AT HOME. Do NOT go to work, the pub, a restaurant, football match, concert, garden centre etc, etc, etc. Do NOT visit friends, relations - get your food delivered.

Yes, your life is crap BUT everyone else can get on with their normal lives and we won't have people moaning about not wearing face masks (whatever dubious protection they provide) and the other mass panic issues.

---

But it is impossible to effectively isolate the vulnerable. Many younger people with existing health conditions are living with children who have to go to school; many older people are having carers, family or friends come in each day to look after them; everyone in care homes has staff coming in and out; food deliveries and even the post *may* carry the virus.

The only way to protect is to cut the prevalence, by cutting the spread of the virus throughout the general community - which means people like myself, choosing not to take a foreign holiday or pack onto a crowded UK beach; not to meet up with friends at home or in pubs/restaurants; not to go leisure shopping; to work from home if possible; to wear a mask.

Admittedly, it is proven that masks give the were little protection (although any is worth having). Their main reason is to protect others if the wearer is carrying the virus - and figures for different types of mask have showed the worst as giving 7% reduction and the best as 40-odd% (IIRC). Even 7% is quite a help when you are trying to get the R-rate down.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by SteveWalker

But it is impossible to effectively isolate the vulnerable. Many younger people with existing health conditions are living with children who have to go to school; many older people are having carers, family or friends come in each day to look after them; everyone in care homes has staff coming in and out; food deliveries and even the post *may* carry the virus.

The only way to protect is to cut the prevalence, by cutting the spread of the virus throughout the general community.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh
one lab head, Dr Julian Harris, quit

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by jps

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh
one lab head, Dr Julian Harris, quit

---

Can't find anything to suggest Julian Harris was the head of a lab. From what I can find, it seems he worked in the lab actually doing hands on lab work, he didn't run it.

Just an interesting note - Joneh, i'm not suggesting you've added that - but it does inflate a piece of evidence to add the 'fact' that he was the head of the lab... Which I believe is a key feature of how conspiracy theories work, based in reality to some degree, then with embelishments to enhance the argument...

---

Just to share you a little information I think I've already shared in this thread. A 44 year old friend caught covid, ended up in intensive care, had a stroke. He's still recovering. A 47 year old friend caught covid and ... Ended up in intensive care and had a stroke.

Both were fit and well prior.

Please don't think death is the only side effect of this pernicious virus. Younger people may not die but they sure as hell can get ill and suffer life changing consequences.



And don't anyone dare say 47 is old!!!

quote:

---

Originally posted by MikeR
Just to share you a little information I think I've already shared in this thread. A 44 year old friend caught covid, ended up in intensive care, had a stroke. He's still recovering. A 47 year old friend caught covid and ... Ended up in intensive care and had a stroke.

Both were fit and well prior.

Please don't think death is the only side effect of this pernicious virus. Younger people may not die but they sure as hell can get ill and suffer life changing consequences.



And don't anyone dare say 47 is old!!!

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by MikeR
Just to share you a little information I think I've already shared in this thread. A 44 year old friend caught covid, ended up in intensive care, had a stroke. He's still recovering. A 47 year old friend caught covid and ... Ended up in intensive care and had a stroke.

Both were fit and well prior.

Please don't think death is the only side effect of this pernicious virus. Younger people may not die but they sure as hell can get ill and suffer life changing consequences.

And don't anyone dare say 47 is old!!!

---

And there's a problem.

People are expecting a magic pill and Corona disappears them we go back to behaving like we did in 2019. That's incredibly unlikely. We'll hopefully get a Jab that reduces the impact / severity. To be effective we'll need (guess) 80 to 95% take up. That will then give the magical herd immunity for those that can't take it. My son for a while couldn't have his immunisations. We had to rely on herd immunity. You don't have get pissed off when people refuse to immunise their child. How are people going to react to the modern antivaxers?

I've talked about the vaccine with my wife since day one. We're both nervous. Who wants to be first? However with my health I might have no choice.

If my assumption above is true we're going to have an interesting (scary) time, especially if we have some form of instant antibody test (instead of infection)

quote:

---

Originally posted by nelmo
A vaccine is many months away ...

---

quote:

---

quote:
Originally posted by nelmo
A vaccine is many months away ...


I was talking to a friend of mine who's a nurse-practitioner for an Ipswich GP. Her practice has been told to start preparing for the vaccination campaign in the very near future.

As for 'taking the risk', my wife and I both volunteered to be guinea pigs for testing a vaccine, even though we're in our late 60's. As it happens, we didn't get called in, but I think that was mostly due to the fact that the tests were mostly in the Cambridge area and they preferred to use locals who could easily get to appointments at the university/hospital.

---

I don't think they could make it legally mandetory, however I anticipate a country split into those that have had it and are pro vs those that haven't and are anti.

I can forsee it getting to the point people without a vaccine (and therefore no antibodies) being not allowed to do certain things. However i think and hope this is unlikely as its a dangerous path to walk.

quote:

---

I can forsee it getting to the point people without a vaccine (and therefore no antibodies) being not allowed to do certain things. However i think and hope this is unlikely as its a dangerous path to walk.

---

This virus is not giving up without a fight.

Record number of deaths and infections today.

Not sure if I have had it or have it now, but have a very slightly phlegmy chest and nothing else, so if it is it, it is ultra mild.

Hang on in there....

I live in Crawley Sussex, and according to the stats. we have the 6th largest rise in cases over the last week, in the whole of the Great Britain

So looks like my daily 2 mile walk is cancelled, also i may close all the windows as well!

steve

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
I live in Crawley Sussex, and according to the stats. we have the 6th largest rise in cases over the last week, in the whole of the Great Britain

So looks like my daily 2 mile walk is cancelled, also i may close all the windows as well!

---

Don't forget it's not actual deaths within the last 24 hours. Its deaths reported within the last 24 hours that have tested positive over the last 28 days. A sizeable amount of these will be from hospitals, hospices and care homes, from other causes.

The point to keep in mind is that unlike the peak, we're not seeing significant excess deaths at the moment.

If any of the nerds amongst you fancy a read, this model is great. It seems to be very accurate and it annoys people on both sides of the lockdown arguement. Lockdowns do suppress the virus, but to save more lives a two tiered approach is superior. Shield the vulnerable and >60, then essentially let it rip through the rest. It shows peak around now and end around end of March.

You can get the formula and source code for it.

It also shows the vaccine is too late to make any significant saving during this wave.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.09.20210146v1.full

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
I live in Crawley Sussex, and according to the stats. we have the 6th largest rise in cases over the last week, in the whole of the Great Britain

So looks like my daily 2 mile walk is cancelled, also i may close all the windows as well!

steve

---

"I used to live in Yarmouth close, Crawley"

Freinds of ours used to live in Ormesby Walk, a stones throw from your old place

steve

**deleted**

An interesting guy to follow is Tom Fardon. He is the Chair National Advisory Group Respitory Medicine and a Dr at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee.

He had COVID and as a keen cyclist was extremely fit, but suffered a bit of long term lung capacity drop which he wrote about. He's also written some interesting information regarding the benefits of the longer gap between 1st and 2nd doses and how the antibodies against COVID increase over time.

[Edited on 9/1/21 by ADH75]

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
I live in Crawley Sussex, and according to the stats. we have the 6th largest rise in cases over the last week, in the whole of the Great Britain

So looks like my daily 2 mile walk is cancelled, also i may close all the windows as well!

steve

---

That's kinda the opposite of what you should do! But do what you feel is best for your own sanity.

---

So a friends 94 year old father went to hospital on Friday after a nasty fall. They tested him and it came back positive. He's not ill from it, but requires carers at home as he also has Parkinson's. Anyway, the NHS want to discharge him, send him home? Two other people live at home too and as he needs care, it would be impossible to self isolate.

I can't make sense of the logic there, unless the doctors know that without symptoms and a clinical diagnosis the testing is crap, or maybe 94 is a good innings, send him home, to hell with any others and free up a bed?

Sorry but it's just bizarre.

I did a 5.5 mile walk today, as got an app on my phone now, just over two hours, so i am quite pleased, and being a shorty, its a lot longer for me !!

I think it's simple. Ideally wouldn't be sent home, agree. Ideal went out the window long time ago. This Tuesday gone London Ambulance Service had 200+ category 2 patients waiting for an ambulance (I think average response time for those is normally 7 minutes?). We rang through 2 such patients, they were pleading with us to get the patients to hospital some other way: "stick them in an Uber". They said if that wasn't possible the wait would be over 4 hour. This is for a patient with oxygen saturations of 85% at rest (which is seriously scarily terrirtory).

Is sending patients to hospital in an Uber idea (certainly not for the driver!)? Is 4 hour waits for Category 2 patients ideal?

It's chaos.

Truth is they'll send anyone they can home because they need the bed (and the consequences of that decision can wait for another day). In London most hospitals are turning 100% covid beds. Unless someone is on death's door they go home.

People like saying it's not as bad as it seems and in a way I wish I could believe that. Truth is it's not as bad as it seems- it's worse. The decisions required by medics and the planning documents I've read go so far beyond compassion they quite frankly scare me.

Anyhow. Happy happy joy joy. We vaccinated 1200 patients in our hub this weekend (that's the two days you work 24 hours for free after doing the usual week's work) so that's one in the eye for Cov19. Shame in typical NHS fashion the lift broke, the very long slippy path up to the practice hadn't been gritted and I therefore spent an hour not vaccinating people and instead going from one DIY store to another to try and find some rock salt to grit the path with (after a 80+ year old fell on ice and suffered a nasty injury). And no-one knew how to turn on the outside light so after dusk it was pitch-black walking up the aforementioned icy ramp. We had wanted to use our perfectly positioned ground-floor access practice to provide the hub but were told we couldn't so we were at the mercy of NHS property services (who don't do weekends). Thankfully someone knew the mobile number of the mum of the cleaner who knew how to turn them on and eventually I found a DIY shed with some rock salt for sale and we managed to find a very fit medical student who found a wheelchair and ran up and down the (admittidly fairly long three level) ramp to carry the patients up and down to the main entrance from the hub entrance. Common sense was bring the vaccine down to the patients but we were told in no uncertain terms this would not be possible as we would lose our approval and assurance if the vaccine moved vertically (maximum allowed was 3 metres horizontally). I did point out that fairly soon after being stuck in the patient's arm the vaccine would be making this verbotten maneover but fell on deaf ears. So 1000+ 80 year old (plus) patients had to clamber up the ramp (unless the med student was free). Officially of couse I shouldn't have been working at the hub as I hadn't actually completed my mandatory training. I must admit I did do the ones on how to give a vaccine (not sure how I've managed 25 years of medicine without that training) but after 5 hours when I got to the section on "Conflict Resolution" at 9pm at night I realised a conflict of my own in relation to whether I stayed at work completing the BS or went home and had some dinner so I could come back to work the next morning at 8am to start jabbing. All I can say is I resolved that conflict satisfactorily. Just annoys the hell out of me. 40+ clinicians and admin members freely gave up their entire weekends to vaccinate and we're just met with barrier after barrier due to administrative over-reach from DOH pen-pushers and their local wanabees who don't even bother to answer their phones at the weekend to sort out their own mess.

Sorely tempted (getting back to cars) to attend the next meeting with a Kimi quote on a t-shirt "Leave me alone, I know what I'm doing". Unfortunately anything that involves central government gets admnistrated to death (while the politicians say it's all fine and we'll have vaccinated one billion people by next Tuesday).

And breathe........
Crazy times.

[Edited on 10/1/21 by BenB]

Sounds like my brother-in-law's experience: he was a dentist for getting on for 40 years, was even an examiner for dental students, and had his own practice. He had retired less than 4 months ago.

They still insisted that he did the mandatory training, even though he had given injections through all of his career (and not just into gums), managed peoples' anxiety about needles, knew how to deal with adverse reactions, and so on.

He put up with the BS, got approved and with be doing it in the coming weeks - but he very nearly told them to take a running jump.

Ben, my m8, you have my utter respect, I do not know how you deal with this bullshit day in and day out, and on top of that be abused, by total pondlifes

If it wasnt for you (my m8) and the likes of you, we would all be in dire shyte at the moment, and the idiots on Yahoo, reckon we could vacinate the WHOLE of the UK in a week !!! but the govrnment are holding it back, hahahahhahahahahahahahaahahahahahaha,

we are being lied to from every single angle, and as such there are so many lies, we dont know which is worse, or which one to believe !!

steve

quote:

---

Truth is they'll send anyone they can home because they need the bed (and the consequences of that decision can wait for another day). In London most hospitals are turning 100% covid beds. Unless someone is on death's door they go home.

---

There’s no doubt that the person who started this thread is one of those conspiracy believers or else the two funeral director friends are incompetent. The number of excess deaths is real not imagined, the temporary morgues that are filling up with bodies is real not imagined. The whole problem is that these are not the normal misguided people but are using underhanded means to push their agenda. Whether filming out patient departments at night when they are deserted or the hospital cafes which are also closed due to government restrictions to try and persuade us that hospitals are empty. These forums are being used to spread their dangerous rhetoric, fortunately there are more visiting this forum with more sense and first hand knowledge of this devastating disease. Life will never be the same again but with the vaccines that are now being used it will get better. The efficacy of the vaccines is more than 90% not 60% as has been stated.
As for complaining that you are volunteering to administer the vaccine and are made to undergo some training, so what’s the problem? My wife is a practice nurse with over 45 years experience, she has been running flu clinics and children’s immunisation clinics for years and she had to undergo training. She is working extra hours to help vaccinate more people despite being over retirement age, it’s no big deal it’s what she trained to do.
So if you are one of those that peddle lies and conspiracy theories go and join Donald Trump, who is equally mentally deficient!Probably I will be thrown out of the forum for posting this but if everyone kept to the two metre rule, wore a face mask AND did not socialise in groups we would not be in this position.
End of rant

Perhaps the problem with the training is that competent personnel are having to do the same training as novices - "one size fits all" training. Perhaps some adjustment is required....

As for staying your views - everyone on this forum is entitled to speak their mind, as long as they can cope with the responses. You do have to be extremely offensive to get chucked off. I think it's only happens a couple of times.

Speaking of conspiracy theories.

quote:

---

... if everyone kept to the two metre rule, wore a face mask AND did not socialise in groups we would not be in this position

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by mgb281
There’s no doubt that the person who started this thread is one of those conspiracy believers or else the two funeral director friends are incompetent. The number of excess deaths is real not imagined, the temporary morgues that are filling up with bodies is real not imagined. The whole problem is that these are not the normal misguided people but are using underhanded means to push their agenda. Whether filming out patient departments at night when they are deserted or the hospital cafes which are also closed due to government restrictions to try and persuade us that hospitals are empty. These forums are being used to spread their dangerous rhetoric, fortunately there are more visiting this forum with more sense and first hand knowledge of this devastating disease. Life will never be the same again but with the vaccines that are now being used it will get better. The efficacy of the vaccines is more than 90% not 60% as has been stated.
As for complaining that you are volunteering to administer the vaccine and are made to undergo some training, so what’s the problem? My wife is a practice nurse with over 45 years experience, she has been running flu clinics and children’s immunisation clinics for years and she had to undergo training. She is working extra hours to help vaccinate more people despite being over retirement age, it’s no big deal it’s what she trained to do.
So if you are one of those that peddle lies and conspiracy theories go and join Donald Trump, who is equally mentally deficient!Probably I will be thrown out of the forum for posting this but if everyone kept to the two metre rule, wore a face mask AND did not socialise in groups we would not be in this position.
End of rant

---

New figures for last year show 15% (almost 91,000) more deaths than the 5 year average - in a year that was previously expected to have well below average deaths.

Whether Covid-19 is killing lots of people directly or exacerbating existing conditions so that those kill them does not matter. It clearly is causing a huge number of extra deaths.

quote:

---

Originally posted by SteveWalker
New figures for last year show 15% (almost 91,000) more deaths than the 5 year average - in a year that was previously expected to have well below average deaths.

Whether Covid-19 is killing lots of people directly or exacerbating existing conditions so that those kill them does not matter. It clearly is causing a huge number of extra deaths.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Irony

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.

---

So you are effectively stating the the governments across the globe and their scientific advisors are all wrong and you are correct? Wow!!!!

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quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

quote:

---

Originally posted by Irony

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

This is part of the basis for my argument that Lockdowns don't save lives, if that's the ultimate aim.

---

So you are effectively stating the the governments across the globe and their scientific advisors are all wrong and you are correct? Wow!!!!

---

No, are you saying that governments across the globe that haven't locked down and their scientific advisors are wrong and you're correct? Wow!!

---

i suppose to test out whether lockdowns actually save lives or not you'd need to run a control group, and have an entire country just decide not to lockdown at all and see how many die.

the reality is, no one is able to do this. what we can see (from what i have read) is that even in countries that have initially tried this the death toll becomes so high, and the rate of rise becomes so rapid that you have to lockdown.

i hear lots of people say lockdowns don't work. but having seen the evidence of when people observe them well, the numbers fall and this seems to suggest that they do. (this doesn't take into account other 'at home' deaths of course)

the other thing is to look at countries that have locked down strictly right from the start versus those that thought it would sort itself out shortly. Australia now have tiny amounts of cases and ours is surging. family in Oz cant believe the hash our country appears to have made of all this.

they locked down hard at the start, before it was too late, they closed regional borders before it was too late and offered enforced quarantine for any overseas arrivals, and guess what they hardly have any cases.

come to think of it, maybe we are the control group.....

quote:

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Originally posted by joneh

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quote:

---

I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?

We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.

Davie

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by daviep

I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?

We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.

Davie

---

On the idea of ring fencing the vulnerable, so that everyone else can ride it out, that's just naive

One of the members of my direct family is extremely clinically vulnerable due to an immune deficiency, but otherwise healthy
So how would that work, would we lock them in a room whilst the rest of the house got covid and hope that we don't kill our family member? Or I couldn't go to work and the kids couldn't go to school?

What about the 24 year old guy at work who damaged his kidneys playing rugby, so he can't go to work?

Another guy who has asthma, mild enough that none of us knew, but he's on the vulnerable list?

My company were very progressive when it first hit, they initially sent home all of the vulnerable people, we lost about 15% of our workforce, some absolutely key people, of the 40 or so people, I'd say only 2 of them would you consider to be unhealthy

How would care homes operate if the staff can't come in contact with the residents?

What about visiting grandparents, that's be impossible?


The ONS estimated that for most of last year there was about 0.5 - 1% of the population who had Covid at any time, now it may be 2%
The likelihood of having it and passing it on to those few that I mentioned was low

Now imagine that it's allowed to run wild in the "healthy and young" population, the chances of passing it on to the vulnerable is significantly greater



It's not practical to ring fence the vulnerable, if you have to interface with them

quote:

---

Originally posted by Toys2

quote:

---

Originally posted by daviep

I don't really understand your argument, you seem to be suggesting that without lock down the National Health Service would continue operating in a normal fashion while thousands of people die. Where do you think these people are going to? Quietly dying at home so that the rest of the population can access health care? Obviously once the NHS is swamped with covid related patients nobody will be receiving health care, at that point you have a high covid death rate + high incidental rate?

We in the UK live on a small congested island, look how hard it has been to avoid the spread even with restrictions on socialising in place.

Davie

---

Absolutely, there's so many people coming up with over simplified solutions that don't hold up to scrutiny



Most of the country has various levels of tier or lockdown for the last few months and our health system is still getting overloaded with Covid Patients, what would have happened with less controls?

I'm a firm believer that we could've had less draconian measures, if they were followed. As it is, we all have to suffer stricter measures because there are idiots out there that don't even do the basics and the frustrating thing is, "hands face space" really doesn't impact your quality of life

I normally don't comment because the deny'ers annoy me too much, that's not to say that we shouldn't challenge the data or interpretation

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

Or, those methods don't work particular well for a respiratory virus? They'd work very well for Norovirus, and if you take a look at the PHE Norovirus Outbreak Reporting Tool you can see the massive impact washing hands and social distancing had. It shows that they are widely adhered too. i.e. we can't blame "rule breakers".

Take a look at the dramatic effect it had below. I don't think its too much of a stretch to think the UK approach is wrong, maybe tiers & lockdown don't work in the UK, rather than saying well we need to Lockdown harder or it's the rule breakers fault.

https://hnors.phe.gov.uk/

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by coyoteboy
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.

Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human race.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by daviep

quote:

---

Originally posted by coyoteboy
If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.

Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human race.

---

Agree 100%

---

quote:

---

If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.

Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human rac

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by swanny
i suppose to test out whether lockdowns actually save lives or not you'd need to run a control group, and have an entire country just decide not to lockdown at all and see how many die.

the reality is, no one is able to do this. what we can see (from what i have read) is that even in countries that have initially tried this the death toll becomes so high, and the rate of rise becomes so rapid that you have to lockdown.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

quote:

---

If we locked down hard and properly it would function properly and we'd see drops, but we have a smart-arse population of knowitall idiots who question every expert opinion instead of just following the guidance, because they're "woke" and "not sheep" - and for that reason we see endless partial lockdowns, and economy crumbling, mental health crisis after crisis. They're the cause of the failure. They need to grow up, accept responsibility for ever increasing deaths, and act like they care about other people.

Honestly, the level of selfishness, arrogance and stupidity I see across social media makes me not want to be part of the human rac

---

So is it that we've not locked down hard, or the idiots fault? Because at no point have the government recommended a hard lockdown.

Either way, I 100% disagree with this. Prof Valance predicted in March that winter would be a disaster if we kept locked down and suppressed the virus and didn't achieve some sort of degree of herd immunity. He said we should keep infections below the NHS threshold and not suppress it completely. He's clearly not an idiot, but for one reason or another, the Government choose a different path (maybe they're the idiots you referred too?).

I think it's extremely naïve to label anyone who suggests an alternative approach an idiot or that rule breakers are responsible and without them this would magically go away. Is the director of Evidence based medicine at Oxford University an idiot? If he is, he's done well.

I'm not suggesting that Lockdowns don't work at suppressing the virus, they do. I'm just open to the idea that there are better methods that could save more lives and completely suppressing the virus might not be the best method, as clear by our current situation.

---

Wanted to add to this thread as my oldest friend of 40 years lost his faher to COVID-19 a few days before Christmas. His mother had it as well, but stayed at home and symptoms were a runny nose and sore throat for a few days. Funeral on Monday next week, which I shall be going to in support of my friend and his mum.

Another school friend recently lost his father to it as well.

The virus seems closer and more dangerous as time goes on!

Ive just found out that my next door neighbours, have got it, and isolating, so has one of there Sons and also the Sister from my Neighbours

And none of them have seen each other, in over a month, so not passing it through the family,

Well, me, and Mrs M, are staying in now, come what ever, !!

steve

quote:

---

Originally posted by mgb281
There’s no doubt that the person who started this thread is one of those conspiracy believers or else the two funeral director friends are incompetent. The number of excess deaths is real not imagined, the temporary morgues that are filling up with bodies is real not imagined. The whole problem is that these are not the normal misguided people but are using underhanded means to push their agenda. Whether filming out patient departments at night when they are deserted or the hospital cafes which are also closed due to government restrictions to try and persuade us that hospitals are empty. These forums are being used to spread their dangerous rhetoric, fortunately there are more visiting this forum with more sense and first hand knowledge of this devastating disease. Life will never be the same again but with the vaccines that are now being used it will get better. The efficacy of the vaccines is more than 90% not 60% as has been stated.
As for complaining that you are volunteering to administer the vaccine and are made to undergo some training, so what’s the problem? My wife is a practice nurse with over 45 years experience, she has been running flu clinics and children’s immunisation clinics for years and she had to undergo training. She is working extra hours to help vaccinate more people despite being over retirement age, it’s no big deal it’s what she trained to do.
So if you are one of those that peddle lies and conspiracy theories go and join Donald Trump, who is equally mentally deficient!Probably I will be thrown out of the forum for posting this but if everyone kept to the two metre rule, wore a face mask AND did not socialise in groups we would not be in this position.
End of rant

---

This is a very emotive subject. I'm not going to add any fuel to the fire with any opinions. However one thing I've noticed is people seem to be very intolerant of any opinion that doesn't align with their own.

Just because you don't agree with something doesn't make you or the other person wrong or right. Facts figures and news can all be twisted to suit whichever rhetoric.

A differing opinion doesn't require name calling or rubbishing that person nor does it make them a "retard" or anything else. Opinions are like arseholes everyone has one.

We need to stick together (but apart) stop sniping and look forward to a hopefully better second half of the year and beyond.

For those more interested in facts than rhetoric, I find More or Less to be a really excellent program and popping a few nonsense bubbles!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd



Cheers,
James

quote:

---

Originally posted by sdh2903
This is a very emotive subject. I'm not going to add any fuel to the fire with any opinions. However one thing I've noticed is people seem to be very intolerant of any opinion that doesn't align with their own.

Just because you don't agree with something doesn't make you or the other person wrong or right. Facts figures and news can all be twisted to suit whichever rhetoric.

A differing opinion doesn't require name calling or rubbishing that person nor does it make them a "retard" or anything else. Opinions are like arseholes everyone has one.

We need to stick together (but apart) stop sniping and look forward to a hopefully better second half of the year and beyond.

---

The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.

Feel free to Google the minutes.

[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[Sarcasm]

I had it last April I can only tell you it’s the strangest illness I’ve ever had ... completely messed me up .. bad headaches, no taste or smell, couldn’t breathe through my nose, chest had a burning feeling in my air ways, tooth pain, very bad fatigue and muscle pain, migraines and the oddest thing a craving for sugary foods and drinks, weight loss and a very deep emotional depression..... it took me 4 months to start to feel right ... I was very frightened and I’m not usually easily upset ...god help anyone who gets it really bad ... I still sometimes feel knackered

Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!

My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant

I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,


Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand

Sorry to hear you are struggling Steve, one of the best things I have done to improve my mood is to stop reading & watching the news, we all know that things are topsy turvy at the moment we don't need to be bombarded with negativity 24/7.

Read books, listen to some good music, take up brewing

Life will get back to normal, to steal someone else's analogy "the blue is always there, the clouds are temporary"

Davie

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh
The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.

Feel free to Google the minutes.

[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[Sarcasm]

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by daviep

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh
The head of Immunisation for PHE, Dr Ramsey has just suggested to the Science & Technology Committee that England may follow a focused protection strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate the young, where not causing much harm.

Feel free to Google the minutes.

[Sarcasm]
What an idiot!
[Sarcasm]

---

However the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty does not share her sentiments,

"On 3 November, Chris Whitty told the Science and Technology Select Committee that the declaration was "dangerously flawed", "scientifically weak", and "ethically really difficult".[40][48][49] He explained that "Focused Protection" was operationally impractical and would "inevitably" cause the deaths of "a very large number of people".


Davie

---

I’ll try and not get emotive but it is difficult not to when the loudest voices are those that don’t believe there is a big problem.
There most certainly is...
Here are some little bits of privileged information that I get briefed on and I would think by now can be found widely.

The virus has mutated 27 times since we started mapping its gnome, the last 7 mutations were the ones that increased its ability to infect people, the protein spikes have got more sticky.

33% of those infected with the more virulent strain will be a symptomatic and will not know they have it so won’t get tested and continue to spread it.

The latest risk due to the mutation is picking the virus up from surfaces so whilst masks and distance worked well in the first lockdown we now need to be particularly careful with hands so wash or gel before touching and wash or gel after because you will touch your eyes, nose, mouth, arse etc.

Hospitals are filling up fast, more frontline staff are getting infected and/or having to self isolate.

The infections may be dropping slightly due to lockdown but the peak of deaths will be middle of February

The dark prediction very early in 2020 of 100,000 seems very likely.

21st March 2020 to 1st Jan 2021
Expected deaths 373,537
Registered deaths 445,712
Excess deaths. 72,174
Covid related deaths 76,553

Every death is someone’s loved one

I don't think anyone on here is suggesting the problem isn't real or big... I'm simply parroting massive amounts of scientific evidence that there is a better way.

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

Meanwhile, here's very recent paper from one of the best universities in the world, Stanford, making a similar intangible argument that lockdowns are statistically ineffective.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484

---

quote:

---

Remember "stay positive, test negative"

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!

My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant

I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,


Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand

---

Some of the rules and regs about exercise don't always work - we are under strict orders to only exercise within our own locality, but we live in a small village. All of the footpaths around here are muddy quagmires, slippery and dangerous. If we stick to the very few road routes around the village, we meet loads of people doing the same thing. Many of the road routes are also covered in huge puddles because the soak-away drains are saturated.

Prior to the latest ruling, my wife and I would drive very early in the morning (8:00am) about 15 miles to a fairly remote beach, find 2 or 3 other cars in the car park, walk around for 45 minutes, and never get closer than 25 - 30 yards from the 5 or 6 people we'd see there (but mostly 100 yards or more apart). We'd then get back in the car and drive home. Much, much more social distancing than wandering around the village.

The trouble is, you can't have global rules and make exceptions for particular circumstances... unfortunately.

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
Well, embarrassingly and i started this thread, i am at a very low point in my life now, im isolated, have health issues, financially ok, but i am bored out of my skull, the most important thing about daily life when i wake up, is whats for lunch!!

My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant

I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,
its getting to the point, one day i might not stop walking, and just vanish into what ever,


Just saying, as at the moment i am really really feeling quite low, and an awful lot of you, will not understand

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by steve m
My wife, who hasnt been out of the house in 9 ish months, seems to be able to cope with all of this, but im sorry to say i cant

I do go for a walk every day, and the arguments about the risks, of being outside, and seeing others, walking, causes issues with my wife,

---

All valid points, and this whole scenario is driving me nuts!! and i know this is going to sound so wrong, but i need some male bonding, talking about cars, football totty, etc etc,

So in November i rejoined my local RC flying club, not flown since 2011, and when i could (wife paranoia) went flying for a couple of hours,
Brilliant fun, got me out of the house, mixing with some good old freinds and some new ones, all great, but the BMFA have now closed all flying sites, and withdrawn the insurance, and the stuff i fly, you cant just pop down a local park, so thats a waste of money, !!

And EVERY time i get home, have to be surgically cleaned before im allowed back into the house, its bloody embarrasing being start naked, covered in dettol, more so just my pride, but standing in the middle of the front garden, its not funny !!
Joke obv, but trust me the hand cleaning thing is not a joke

I am 60, with Asthma and lung problems, (never smoked) im on the list for when the over 65's get pricked, and that could be within a few weeks

Ive also got a couple of guitars, and have learnt a few tracks all since last May, and never done it before, but some days, im just not in the mood to play

I watch minimul TV, as ive said before many many times, reading, just isnt for me, i can read, but have yet to find something that gets me interested

This boredom is increased with Winter, its dark, cold wet, misreble, and we all know, that has its own issues

I know all of who are sensible, and doing the right thing will come out the other end, and say, god that was a bad year, tut, just like all of us who witnessed the 1976 heat wave, we always refer back to that one, as it was by far the hottest

We just have to live a very weird way, and think we are in the film Groundhog day, !!

steve

We're out all the time for walk, cycling, shopping etc. So long as you don't touch anyone and keep your distance, just washing your hands and using sanitiser will keep you safe.

It's not like covid is lurking in bushes waiting to jump you.

hi steve,

like you i'm really missing car chat with mates. I've seen my blokey weekends gone, Le Mans, Nurburgring, Blackpool trips, Silly bike ride meetups, all sorts.

Getting a walk at present is tricky as there are so many people walking near us. I'm lucky enough to live five minutes walk away from a river and believe me its busier walking down the river bank than it would be approaching a footy match at half past two! so I'm getting the bike out instead as the roads are quieter. or going out early morning or evening.

we could organise a Locost zoom call? i'd be happy to chat about cars online for a bit?

whatsapp groups seem to be good for me as a place to share silly/funny rude jokes etc too

How about building a wooden plane kit? That will keep you busy. Then you can fly it once the clubs open up again. I'm sitting with 3 planes ready to go and the club only 1/4 of a mile from my house. Torture.

quote:

---

Originally posted by woodster
I had it last April I can only tell you it’s the strangest illness I’ve ever had ... completely messed me up .. bad headaches, no taste or smell, couldn’t breathe through my nose, chest had a burning feeling in my air ways, tooth pain, very bad fatigue and muscle pain, migraines and the oddest thing a craving for sugary foods and drinks, weight loss and a very deep emotional depression..... it took me 4 months to start to feel right ... I was very frightened and I’m not usually easily upset ...god help anyone who gets it really bad ... I still sometimes feel knackered

---

According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.

quote:

---

Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

quote:

---

Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.

---

I'd get a different doctor. The PCR test will find anything in anyone.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by russbost

quote:

---

Originally posted by joneh

quote:

---

Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.

---

I'd get a different doctor. The PCR test will find anything in anyone.

---

Whoaaa, sorry but that's waaay wrong, if tested on day 1 then the PCR test will NOT identify Covid ie 100% false negative, it's only by around day 4 the test becomes even vaguely accurate for false negatives, thios is from the Governments own paper (GOS)

"A recent study [6] combined results from seven studies (>1300 swab test results associated with
time of disease onset) to create a model of the false negative rate for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays
against time since infection. Their model suggested that in the first four days of infection (presymptomatic phase) the probability of a false negative in an infected person decreased from 100%
on day 1 (i.e. a false negative was certain) to 67% on day 4. It then decreased to 38% on day 5 (day
of symptom onset) to a minimum of 20% on day 8 of infection (i.e. one in five people still give a false
negative result despite having experienced three days of COVID-19 symptoms). The false negative
rate then increased from day 9 (21%) to day 21 (66%). Point estimates and confidence intervals are
shown in Figure 1 [taken from 6]."

---

Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.

---

Talking of the plague... in spite of things changing over time, some things remain the same...

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210107-the-432-year-old-manual-on-social-distancing

quote:

---

Originally posted by russbost

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.

---

With a survival rate of well over 99% Covid is about as comparable to the plague as comparing apples with chalk!

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mr Whippy

quote:

---

Originally posted by russbost

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Well the lock down and testing will never be perfect but without it in the results would have been like the plague.

---

With a survival rate of well over 99% Covid is about as comparable to the plague as comparing apples with chalk!

---

Hmm a bit lower than 99%, but yes the plague was about 10 times worse but there were a lot of other factors that caused that due to when that happened. If Covid had happened at the time of the plague then the mortality rate would have been very high.

---

I am sorry to say, but the figures dont add up, My Son and Daughter inlaw, as did a Brother in Law, and family, both had Covid back in Feb/March 2020, and lost smell taste etc for a good few months, yet were never tested, so those figures are wrong

There are people walking about in shops right now, who have Covid, but dont know, equally there are death reports of covid related death, but was 100% not, and an Aunt had exactly this, infact, a Dr never came out to see her, after her death, it was all done on the phone, as she was in a care home

None of the figures, no matter what are going to be right so arguing amongst yourselves as to who has the right figures, is just laughable for all those readers watching this thread

I dont give a poo if 100 people or 60 million people have in theory or on a spreadsheet somewhere got this Covid disease in the UK, but i and my family dont want it, and as such we are staying inside, im bored as fuck, but we seem to be safe

I obviously do care, if someone has contracted the virus, or at worst Died, but my comment above reflects that no one knows THE EXACT FIGURES,

No one, the NHS dont know, the Scientists dont know, the Government, and i include ALL parties dont know nor does any other fourth parties

steve

Yup, UCL reckon 1 in 10 over the UK have had it based off their antibody testing, but again based off sampling.

I wouldn't want it either, but if the government changed to a two tier approach, and let me make my own decisions I'd be happy to go back to the office, shops, etc.

Well, you can look at whoever's figures you want, but comparing Covid to the bubonic plague is a non starter, whether you call it a 0.1% or a 2% death rate with Covid, it's not even ball park with the black death, but hospital facilities were marginally worse back then whatever you might think of the NHS now!

I think we're currently slightly past the max hospital admissions we're going to see & probably at or around max deaths, from graphs looks as tho' it's starting to plateau, give it another couple of weeks & things are probably going to look a little rosier, but I doubt Gov are going to do anything now either until after half term or when they've vaccinated at least 95% of the first 4 levels they wanted done.

I've personally seen some very weird scenarios during the more recent part of the pandemic, my son in law's grandfather, in his 80's was in hospital with what was basically flu/pneumonia & family were told he was dying, however they were also told he had tested "partially positive" for Covid! WTF??? That's like being a bit pregnant! They were allowed to see him b4 he passed, but had to all gown up & were told they'd need to self isolate afterwards - they all went & got tests & all tested negative on 2 tests 4 days apart - Grandad will have gone down as a Covid death, he clearly did NOT die from Covid

My wife's uncle, aged 96 & with mild to moderate asthma had to go into hospital 10 days ago as an emergency, ironically 1 day b4 his scheduled Covid jab. He went in on Sunday night, had the urinary problems addressed over the next couple of days, then on Thursday night they announced his admission swab had tested positive for Covid - what's the point of testing someone if the result is going to take that long to come back??? However, he was completely symptom free, he was tested again on Saturday (6 days after admission) & again tested positive, they sent him home yesterday with a care package, he's still completely symptom free, but has to self isolate until this Weds evening

Our neighbours across the road have 4 sons, the youngest brought it home from school with him for Xmas, so they all had to self isolate, 6 people, one household, all had tests only 2 of the remaining 5 were positive & they were completely symptom free, the father (in his 50's) tested negative, but had a bout of the worst flu he's ever had, seems very odd & very coincidental, his missus had bowel cancer & chemo about 18 months ago, so is still classed as at risk, weak immune system & yet she was completely symptom free although testing positive!

One of the guys at our running club, a coach, absolutely fit as a flea, had to self isolate around early Nov as someone else in his office tested positive, he felt fine but self isolated, then came down with it big time, struggling to draw breath, absolutely zero energy etc., but not hospitalised - he's recovered OK, but first time he attempted to run, about 3 weeks after initial "recovery" had to stop as couldn't draw breath, he was only running 5k, since then he's gradually got back to somewhere near his previous level of fitness tho' probably still around a half minute per km slower than he was back in October

It really does seem completely illogical & just doesn't seem to follow a set pattern at all, as others have said, I definitely don't want it, but I most certainly do want my life back & I'd be a LOT happier if more of the decisions were given to us to make, unfortunately as has proved from many illegal gatherings if you allow people to make their own decisions they will frequently be unfair & selfish.

Let's just all agree to disagree, no such thing as a wrong opinion (unless it disagrees with mine! ) & keep fingers crossed that we're soon out of this mess!

Today...
The number of people who have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus has risen by 1,610 in 24 hours – the highest daily increase so far recorded during the pandemic.
It brings the total number of deaths in the UK to 91,470.

It is expected that whilst infections will drop over the next few weeks deaths will increase as it take 28 days (sometimes more) for deaths to match infection rates.
There is no good news right now but we expect there to be better news by end of February.
Be aware the projection for having all adults vaccinated is now September...

It ain’t over yet but if we continue to wear masks wash hands and keep our distance we will help the vaccine to do it’s job

Russ,

There was an interesting piece on the Radio interviewing a Newcastle United Footballer. Apparently they had an out break at the club and a reasonable number of the players developed Covid. As ‘elite’ athletes, their health parameters are monitored routinely and so the effects of the disease could be measured.

Some players were asymptomatic, no effect on performance.

Some had symptoms, were affected but recovered.

Some had symptoms, outwardly recovered, but 6 weeks later are still only 80% back to previous fitness levels.

I believe it has a lot to do with ‘viral load’ I.e how much of the virus you inhale.

A small viral load takes longer to multiply and so the bodies immune response has a better chance of suppressing the disease.

A large viral load has more of a chance to do damage before the immune response defeats it.

It’s weird. My Niece, who is an NHS nurse, contracted mild Covid and passed it on to my Brother in law (niece still lives at home). However my sister neither developed it nor tested positive.

@Steve - I feel for you! I’ve only met you once but what you are going through must be really tough. You are clearly a creative man - have you tried learning any digital skills to occupy your brain? Create something electronically rather than physically? Or maybe make some online videos where you can pass on your experiences to others? Tough, I know, but stick with it, - there’s light at the end of the tunnel asp day this time it isn’t a train coming the other way!

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Well, we lose around 500-550,000 a year on average, so I doubt 2020 figures will actually look a great deal different

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Bit of a sad day today - the funeral of my wife's 92-year-old uncle, who died of covid-19. He wasn't partially well anyway, and could just as easily have died of flu if he'd caught that.

The funeral was in South London, about 80-90 miles from where we live, but of course we were unable to attend. My wife could only watch via a video link. His brother, my father-in-law, is 96 and there was no way that he could travel from his home in Gloucester.

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Originally posted by David Jenkins
Bit of a sad day today - the funeral of my wife's 92-year-old uncle, who died of covid-19. He wasn't partially well anyway, and could just as easily have died of flu if he'd caught that.

The funeral was in South London, about 80-90 miles from where we live, but of course we were unable to attend. My wife could only watch via a video link. His brother, my father-in-law, is 96 and there was no way that he could travel from his home in Gloucester.

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"Sorry to hear that. It does make me angry the position we're in now when so much more could have been done."

Like what exactly?? Sorry, But David is a very dear friend, as we were in the original builders of our locosts, and fore bearers of this club

But exactly what could of been done for David and his family to off attended the funeral ?
Move the whole ceremony 60 miles north of South London so he could attend ?
probably mean the South London portion of the family couldnt !!

Theres a BIG reason why Funerals are limited to 30 people, and that includes the staff/bearers, its to avoid any form of contact between groups, especially those form different areas

Sorry David to here of your news, its a sad time we live in at the moment

steve

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Originally posted by steve m
"Sorry to hear that. It does make me angry the position we're in now when so much more could have been done."

Like what exactly?? Sorry, But David is a very dear friend, as we were in the original builders of our locosts, and fore bearers of this club

But exactly what could of been done for David and his family to off attended the funeral ?
Move the whole ceremony 60 miles north of South London so he could attend ?
probably mean the South London portion of the family couldnt !!

Theres a BIG reason why Funerals are limited to 30 people, and that includes the staff/bearers, its to avoid any form of contact between groups, especially those form different areas

Sorry David to here of your news, its a sad time we live in at the moment

steve

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Originally posted by roadrunner
According to our doctor, 25% of people that test negative for Covid are actually positive.

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Best thing to do is shoot all the fecking ponlife that still won't follow the rules!!!!

Im with Starterman, although i wouldnt shoot them, i would inject them with a live covid and wait for them to spread the news within there inbred moronic pondlife retard friends

That will mean more jobs, and an awful lot more un polluted air for the sensible ones who are staying safe and looking after our family's etc

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Originally posted by steve m
Im with Starterman, although i wouldnt shoot them, i would inject them with a live covid and wait for them to spread the news within there inbred moronic pondlife retard friends

That will mean more jobs, and an awful lot more un polluted air for the sensible ones who are staying safe and looking after our family's etc

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Originally posted by joneh

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Originally posted by steve m
Im with Starterman, although i wouldnt shoot them, i would inject them with a live covid and wait for them to spread the news within there inbred moronic pondlife retard friends

That will mean more jobs, and an awful lot more un polluted air for the sensible ones who are staying safe and looking after our family's etc

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Whilst the above is distinctively reminiscent of the Nazis, I don't think infecting a very large portion of the population with Covid will aid towards ending this pandemic. Remember rules are set by politicians, rather than scientists. Some of the rules, take the 10pm rule were completely counter productive and advised against by the experts. Locking down London and giving everyone a day to pack onto busy trains and leave was frankly, insane. Some of the rules SHOULD have been ignored, as advised by experts, as they did more damage than good.

Don't swallow the line that we're in this mess due to "rule breakers". This is what the government will inevitably blame it on, rather than holding up their hands. It's government failings that have led us here. They've seen this as a money making exercise and it will end in prison sentences for some.

Every country in Europe, with policies ranging from a hands off minimal social distancing, no masks, to a police enforced lockdown is doing better than the UK.

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Originally posted by joneh
Locking down London and giving everyone a day to pack onto busy trains and leave was frankly, insane.

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Originally posted by Slimy38

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Originally posted by joneh
Locking down London and giving everyone a day to pack onto busy trains and leave was frankly, insane.

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Yep, this is the one (and other very similar ones) that just didn't make any sense for me. But I'm not sure how else it could have been done? If they had given people seven days warning most people would have left it 6.5 days before doing anything about it.

The government do get some grief and I'm not saying they're perfect (far from it), but the general population is stupid. It's not difficult to judge how long 2 metres is. Or realise a mask won't help if it doesn't cover nose and mouth.

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Originally posted by Toys2

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Originally posted by Slimy38

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Originally posted by joneh
Locking down London and giving everyone a day to pack onto busy trains and leave was frankly, insane.

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Yep, this is the one (and other very similar ones) that just didn't make any sense for me. But I'm not sure how else it could have been done? If they had given people seven days warning most people would have left it 6.5 days before doing anything about it.

The government do get some grief and I'm not saying they're perfect (far from it), but the general population is stupid. It's not difficult to judge how long 2 metres is. Or realise a mask won't help if it doesn't cover nose and mouth.

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I can sort of understand people's wish to continue with their plans at Christmas, that said, we changed our plans and so did many others

A similar one that winds me up, is when they announce that pubs will be closing the next day due to high infection rates. The crowds of people that still go out for "one last almighty wee up"
The same happened with the crowds cramming their Christmas shopping


Those are truly examples where people should've acted more responsibly

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Originally posted by joneh
Absolutely correct. This touches on Slimy38's point as well. The rules and deployment of the rules do not take in account human nature, people piling into the streets, buses, trains and tubes at 10pm, when before there were staggered pub closing times. Mind bogglingly stupid, but forced to do by the rule.

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Originally posted by Toys2

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Originally posted by joneh
Absolutely correct. This touches on Slimy38's point as well. The rules and deployment of the rules do not take in account human nature, people piling into the streets, buses, trains and tubes at 10pm, when before there were staggered pub closing times. Mind bogglingly stupid, but forced to do by the rule.

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No one 'forced' anyone to choose to go to the pub or go Christmas shopping, they made their own decisions, not the government
Did they have to go to the pub? - No
Did they have to go Christmas gift shopping? - No

Our local police chief put it better than I ever could, when he was asked about a public figure breaking rules, setting a bad example
He said that we should stop looking at what others are doing and make our own choices. Do we need to drive to a walk, when there is one closer? Do we need to make that shopping trip, when it could wait until the next big shop? etc etc

I couldn't agree more with him at the moment, with high cases, we all need to take personal responsibility, limit physical contact and unnecessary travel. This is nothing to do with blame, this is to do with everyone taking positive action


It's so so simple, Covid can't spread without contact, limit contact

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Originally posted by joneh


I'm agreeing with you, but I didn't say they forced them to go to the pub, that was within the rules and people are allowed to live their lives. The rule forced people to leave the pub at 10. People will want to live their lives, do things they enjoy, no matter how daft other people may think that is. That is what the rules should take into account.

Your police chief sounds like a very sensible chap and he's absolutely right. We should be able to make our own choices, but can't as their are rules in place! In some instances, the answer to those questions will be yes. Someone else mentioned that the rules may prevent them driving to a secluded area for their usual walk, now they have to walk in their busy village! In this instance, the rule is counter productive. Don't you agree?

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Originally posted by Toys2

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Originally posted by joneh


I'm agreeing with you, but I didn't say they forced them to go to the pub, that was within the rules and people are allowed to live their lives. The rule forced people to leave the pub at 10. People will want to live their lives, do things they enjoy, no matter how daft other people may think that is. That is what the rules should take into account.

Your police chief sounds like a very sensible chap and he's absolutely right. We should be able to make our own choices, but can't as their are rules in place! In some instances, the answer to those questions will be yes. Someone else mentioned that the rules may prevent them driving to a secluded area for their usual walk, now they have to walk in their busy village! In this instance, the rule is counter productive. Don't you agree?

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Whenever there's an argument or discussion about covid, people seem to use use black or white examples, when in truth, there is a solution in the middle ground

Everyone is allowed to live their lives, but I also think that everyone has a responsibility to look out for each other, I think that it is reasonable to hope that people would amend their behaviors for the benefit of others, maybe cut down how often they visit a pub (when allowed!)

Those people leaving the pub at 10pm, could've choose to leave at 9:45pm, (some sweeping stereotypes to follow ) The could choose to spend a great night with 5 friends, without getting bladdered and hanging around outside the pub afterwards
I don't really have to explain the difference, between 6 mates having a good night, sitting around a table, with a reasonable distance between themselves or 20 mates swapping tables, shoulder to shoulder, then gathering outside off license afterwards
The rules haven't forced them to do that, they have chosen that they want to act that way, that's what I mean by personal responsibility and choice


The police chief was actually talking about the "driving for a walk" issue, his response was to be sensible and ask yourself if you are doing the right thing
Clearly those ladies getting fined in Derby was wrong, in most cases a friendly chat with the police, wouldn't result in a fine

There is no 'law' to saw that you are not allowed to drive X distance to go for a exercise, there is guidance (Which is vague!!) but again everyone has to ask themselves, do I need to drive 1 mile or 5 miles? If my local area was too busy, I would drive to the next closest place that is safe.

But how many people are using it as an excuse to drive further than they need to? This was discussed during the first lockdown, the best advice I heard, was that you should not be driving past a place that you can safely walk, just to get to your favorite spot

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I think it's the vagueness that rankles - I simply don't know whether I can drive 15 minutes to my favourite deserted beach or not. It's all academic, as we've chosen not to go there at the moment anyway.

As for walking round locally, we went out today and met about 6 people we know well (we stayed well separated!). I say we kept separated - a local pillock walked between us, muttering that social distancing ws a load of b*ll*cks and he wanted nothing to do with it. I don't think he heard me call him a prat... although I wasn't exactly whispering... he's an anti-social pillock at the best of times - I think he's in training to be the next village idiot!

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Originally posted by David Jenkins
I think it's the vagueness that rankles - I simply don't know whether I can drive 15 minutes to my favourite deserted beach or not. It's all academic, as we've chosen not to go there at the moment anyway.

As for walking round locally, we went out today and met about 6 people we know well (we stayed well separated!). I say we kept separated - a local pillock walked between us, muttering that social distancing ws a load of b*ll*cks and he wanted nothing to do with it. I don't think he heard me call him a prat... although I wasn't exactly whispering... he's an anti-social pillock at the best of times - I think he's in training to be the next village idiot!

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Originally posted by Toys2

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Originally posted by David Jenkins
I think it's the vagueness that rankles - I simply don't know whether I can drive 15 minutes to my favourite deserted beach or not. It's all academic, as we've chosen not to go there at the moment anyway.

As for walking round locally, we went out today and met about 6 people we know well (we stayed well separated!). I say we kept separated - a local pillock walked between us, muttering that social distancing ws a load of b*ll*cks and he wanted nothing to do with it. I don't think he heard me call him a prat... although I wasn't exactly whispering... he's an anti-social pillock at the best of times - I think he's in training to be the next village idiot!

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It is a minefield, we live about 15 minutes from the Lake District, but have stopped going, as there are numerous closer walks

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Agree, Davie, on most of your post

But i am no way a BoJo fan, infact i belevie him to be a blood relative of that major idiot and clown, Trump !!

I believe that no matter who was in power, and remained so, what would they have done for us?
Just imagine that total and utter bellend Corbyn , had he been in charge at the back in March 2020, i would imagine, we would be, even more of a laughing stock than we are now (corbyns brother highlighted this, and a bellend of the highest order)

What i dont understand, is that this world changer and needless deaths, why all the political parties, cant all rally round, and agree on a get out of jail strategy

But oh know, thats not playing fairly so they all have to think out of their tiny skulls, to make it as difficult for everyone

And we are the everyone, and we will be the ones that suffer,

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Originally posted by steve m
Agree, Davie, on most of your post

But i am no way a BoJo fan, infact i belevie him to be a blood relative of that major idiot and clown, Trump !!

I believe that no matter who was in power, and remained so, what would they have done for us?
Just imagine that total and utter bellend Corbyn , had he been in charge at the back in March 2020, i would imagine, we would be, even more of a laughing stock than we are now (corbyns brother highlighted this, and a bellend of the highest order)

What i dont understand, is that this world changer and needless deaths, why all the political parties, cant all rally round, and agree on a get out of jail strategy

But oh know, thats not playing fairly so they all have to think out of their tiny skulls, to make it as difficult for everyone

And we are the everyone, and we will be the ones that suffer,

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Again Davie, i cant disagree, and although Ms Sturgeon has had her moments, i believe she has acted with the well fair of the Scottish public with the best of her intentions, She has also seemed to responded quicker in her actions, than the English Parties , who bicker and bicker between them selves

Ms Sturgeon, is quite a good leader, and it pains me to say that !! but i know you will understand,


steve

Sturgeon has played a canny game. She knows that whatever restrictions she imposes are bankrolled by the U.K. Government and thus is free to do whatever she likes regardless of the financial impact. She also is part of the Cabinet Briefings held on weekday mornings. She then goes on TV and announces what was going to be announced in advance of the Government...

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Originally posted by JC
Sturgeon has played a canny game. She knows that whatever restrictions she imposes are bankrolled by the U.K. Government and thus is free to do whatever she likes regardless of the financial impact. She also is part of the Cabinet Briefings held on weekday mornings. She then goes on TV and announces what was going to be announced in advance of the Government...

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Originally posted by steve m
than the English Parties , who bicker and bicker between them selves

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Originally posted by daviep

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Originally posted by JC
Sturgeon has played a canny game. She knows that whatever restrictions she imposes are bankrolled by the U.K. Government and thus is free to do whatever she likes regardless of the financial impact. She also is part of the Cabinet Briefings held on weekday mornings. She then goes on TV and announces what was going to be announced in advance of the Government...

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Ohh that's a good one... tell us another!

I really hope you don't actually believe any of that.

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Originally posted by daviep
I still lay the blame for the mess we are in now at the feet of BoJo and the rest of the incompetent government. Piss poor wishy washy leadership, no clear message or strategy for months.

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Don't come on here very often now, and having read this I'm glad. Some very unpleasant or very stupid characters who have swallowed this nonsense hook line and sinker.

I read a lot of poo on here at times but this thread seems to be full of idiots who know best. If you're so fecking clever then why aren't you in charge of decision making. Hindsight, now there's a wonderful thing. The country just needs to follow the rules and stop being such a complete bunch of inbred assholes.

As it would appear no one reads my posts, or just ignores them, I will reiterate what I said earlier

"Let's just all agree to disagree, no such thing as a wrong opinion (unless it disagrees with mine! ) & keep fingers crossed that we're soon out of this mess!"

Ripping each other's throats out & name calling really isn't going to help anyone

Well said Russ...


...and, of course, no-one has to read this thread - it's not compulsory!

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Originally posted by JC

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Originally posted by daviep

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Originally posted by JC
Sturgeon has played a canny game. She knows that whatever restrictions she imposes are bankrolled by the U.K. Government and thus is free to do whatever she likes regardless of the financial impact. She also is part of the Cabinet Briefings held on weekday mornings. She then goes on TV and announces what was going to be announced in advance of the Government...

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Ohh that's a good one... tell us another!

I really hope you don't actually believe any of that.

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Here’s just one example.

Yes I know it’s the sun

And Furlough and other CoVid emergency funding is being centrally funded by the treasury and not by the Scottish Parliaments funding.

So I don’t see why it’s particularly controversial.

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