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Author: Subject: Perhaps the end of kit car making as we know it?
craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:10 AM Reply With Quote
I've got to disagree with the notion of hybrids being the way forward. They combine the complexity of both internal combustion and an electric powertrain while being neither a good IC vehicle nor a good BEV vehicle. It's a compromise plain and simple. The only reason they are popular is because Toyota have done a damned good job of their hybrid platform at a time when a full BEV was technically difficult. That time has now passed.

However, with EV ranges now exceeding 200 miles and charging infrastructure improving, it is fast approaching the point where there is no perceivable downside to EV ownership. We've owned a BMW i3 since January 2017 and my wife commutes around 60 miles a day in it an absolutely loves it. Granted, our i3 only has a range of around 120 miles as it's a 2017 model but that is almost never a problem and we have the 535d as our long range cruiser. I realise, not everyone can justify two cars but for those who can, a separate BEV and Petrol/Diesel car are a far better option than a hybrid. We mostly charge the i3 at home but our electricity provider Octopus have a tariff where you get electricity at 5p/kWh for 4 hours each night. That's more than enough time to charge the car each day and results in a full charge for less than £1.50. That's something like 1.25p/mile!

Then there is servicing, which for the i3 is very cheap since you only need to change brake fluid and cabin air filters every couple of years. No oil/filter changes, spark plugs, fuel filters, engine air filters, belts, water pumps, coolant, thermostats and even the braking systems last forever due to regenerative braking. The i3 is made of aluminium, plastic and carbon fibre so rust isn't a problem either. It does tend to chew through tyres quite quickly but that's mainly due to the 170 BHP and the fun factor of zooming around.

I know that things have moved on a lot since we bought our i3 and in many ways there are better cars available out there depending on what you are looking for. The i3 certainly doesn't excel in terms of range but honestly I couldn't care less if some cars can do 300 miles on a charge because nobody should be driving 300 miles at a time without taking a 20-30 minute break during which time you can recharge. I personally love to just keep moving but I'm usually travelling with others who like to stretch their legs every couple of hours. Why carry the weight and cost of battery capacity you rarely need?

Lots of good EV options out there now and it'll only get better in the next decade. Nothing to fear IMHO and I would seriously consider converting my V8 Locost into an electric one if it didn't cost so much!

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bart

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:20 AM Reply With Quote
ok ok think about this people

ok lets have a think about this .

lets look at a motorway service station , we will need to refuel more due to ltd endurance , so say i need to go from Manchester to London
for the foreseeable future that's at least 1 full recharge possibly 2 , south coast even more ,
so lets do some sums
it takes 40 mins to 1 hr to charge i believe

so lets say 1 car 1 hr charge ( maybe using super capacitors ) 100kwh
now times that by say 100 cars per hour probably fair , now that's 100,000 kwh per hr per motorway station
now that's some feed cable / substation infrastructure there to start with
feel free to correct my numbers ps: now add in commercial vehicle's who need what 800 kwh battery packs !

now lets look at home charging
each house has 1 to 2 electric cars ( this is a low average figure )
so they have to recharge over night say
now every one down your street has to do the same thing plus run Electric Heating / cooking !

so houses are loaded on the street supply now tacking into account not every one needs electric at the same time BUT " now they do"

so Ladies and Gentlemen and every one else , we now have world cup switching on the kettle at half time x a factor of 20 - 30 ?

so we have to rewire every street in the uk every substation and the grid , build probably 2 to 3 times as many power stations without green house emission's.

any one else here see a problem ?????





BE ALERT > BRITAIN NEEDS LERTS

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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:39 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bart
ok lets have a think about this .

lets look at a motorway service station , we will need to refuel more due to ltd endurance , so say i need to go from Manchester to London
for the foreseeable future that's at least 1 full recharge possibly 2 , south coast even more ,
so lets do some sums
it takes 40 mins to 1 hr to charge i believe

so lets say 1 car 1 hr charge ( maybe using super capacitors ) 100kwh
now times that by say 100 cars per hour probably fair , now that's 100,000 kwh per hr per motorway station
now that's some feed cable / substation infrastructure there to start with
feel free to correct my numbers ps: now add in commercial vehicle's who need what 800 kwh battery packs !

now lets look at home charging
each house has 1 to 2 electric cars ( this is a low average figure )
so they have to recharge over night say
now every one down your street has to do the same thing plus run Electric Heating / cooking !

so houses are loaded on the street supply now tacking into account not every one needs electric at the same time BUT " now they do"

so Ladies and Gentlemen and every one else , we now have world cup switching on the kettle at half time x a factor of 20 - 30 ?

so we have to rewire every street in the uk every substation and the grid , build probably 2 to 3 times as many power stations without green house emission's.

any one else here see a problem ?????


What if the motorway service station were to become a thing of the past? What if charge points were distributed along the length of the motorways and trunk routes? Or if travellers were encouraged to venture into local villages and towns to spend their cash instead of funnelling it all through the large services companies? Would that be so bad?

What if people have Solar PV at home with a battery pack (recycled vehicle battery pack) and it gathers solar energy all day ready to charge your car back up when you plug in at night with no load on the grid? What if people charge their cars while at work instead of when at home?

I have no doubt that energy management will become important as more and more people move to EVs but it doesn't have to happen overnight so there is plenty of time for the network to adapt to the needs of the consumers. The World Cup kettle analogy falls down in that not everyone needs to charge at the exact same time.

The simple truth is that, if you need to burn fossil fuels then it's more efficient to burn them in a constant RPM large generator than in millions of individual vehicles. Combine that with renewables and some nuclear and we will have more than enough electrical power to get the job done. Yes, distribution networks will need some upgrades but that's been the case for many years and will happen.

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SteveWalker

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:52 AM Reply With Quote
The trouble is that electric cars cannot do some things that petrol ones can. For instance, one Friday night, I arrived home from work at the same time as my wife found an answerphone message that a relative had died and was being buried the next day. We were too late to get a plane that night and the earliest in the morning would be too late to get us there. We had a couple of hours to get ready and get the kids to my parents, before we drove from Manchester to Holyhead; Onto the ferry; From Dun Loaghaire to Sligo, arriving 15 minutes before the funeral. We attended the mass, drove to the graveyard for the burial, then to a hotel for the reception. Stayed about an hour, drove to Belfast, ferry to Cairnryan, back to Manchester and picked the kids up. Almost 24 hours start to finish, 5 to 10 minute stops for petrol, toilet and driver change only.

Another time, after driving home from another part of the country, a friend phoned asking to be driven from Manchester to Nottingham - his mother had just died, he did not feel safe to drive, but he needed to get there quickly - a sudden, unplanned for journey, immediately after another long journey.

If electric cars switch to standardised, replaceable battery packs (maybe one for small, short distance town cars), one (or more when required) for longer distance, larger vehicles. Each manufacturer to detail location, angle of movement, etc. to remove and insert and stations that can swap the batteries in minutes, using robot arms - then they will be a suitable replacement.

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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 01:05 AM Reply With Quote
There will always be exceptions, and solutions will emerge to deal with them. I know this wouldn't have helped in your case but BMW already have a scheme for EV drivers where you can hire a petrol/diesel car at good rates for those times when an EV isn't appropriate. I'm sure in future it'll be possible to drive into a facility in your EV and drive out in a diesel. Or perhaps just drive the EV onto a train like on the channel tunnel and then drive off at the other end. Lots of possibilities which are probably preferable to driving non stop for 24 hours.

I've always wanted a Land Rover Defender fully kitted out with snorkel and extra fuel tanks and camping gear etc for when the zombie apocalypse (or next pandemic...) happens but until 2020 happened I didn't think I could justify it! Maybe time for a rethink!

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Slimy38

posted on 20/11/20 at 07:57 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
our electricity provider Octopus have a tariff where you get electricity at 5p/kWh for 4 hours each night.


quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
The World Cup kettle analogy falls down in that not everyone needs to charge at the exact same time.


Those 4 hours are going to be very popular though?

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David Jenkins

posted on 20/11/20 at 08:30 AM Reply With Quote
I'm on Octopus Agile - the price of electricity varies every 30 minutes, according to the market price. It generally averages around 10p - 11p per KWh, which is cheaper than the usual fixed rate but it can go way below that at off-peak times, even down to a negative price. The only down-side on this tariff is that you get hammered at the peak consumption period between 16:00 and 19:00 every evening (around 28 - 30p per KWh). This wouldn't suit some people, but as there are only 2 of us in the house, and a lot of the time we cook on the gas hob anyway, this is a penalty we can cope with. We make sure to never charge the car, run the tumble drier, etc during this period. Of course, this is exactly what the electricity company is trying to encourage - levelling the load on the grid.

The result of this is that on sunny days I often charge the car during 'normal-to-low rate' times so that our solar panels take some of the load - on good days I'm only taking 4KWh off the grid, with solar providing the other 3.2KWh. And I'm getting paid for that 3.2KWh...

I believe that everybody's electricity use is going to change in the near future as many companies have seen how popular Octopus Agile has become - there are at least 2 other companies with similar schemes starting up quite soon.

Quick and shameless plug: if anyone wants to change to Octopus please get in touch with me - I can give you a referral code that would mean a significant chunk of money off each of our bills!






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David Jenkins

posted on 20/11/20 at 08:35 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by coyoteboy
Nah not IMO, motorcycles have 33x the fatality rate of cars because of a host of reasons, not least the lack of protection.


My sister-in-law used to be one of the consultant anaesthetists who ran the A&E at Gloucester Royal Infirmary. Their (very discrete and unofficial) nickname for motorcyclists was 'donors'.






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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 11:27 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Slimy38
quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
our electricity provider Octopus have a tariff where you get electricity at 5p/kWh for 4 hours each night.


quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
The World Cup kettle analogy falls down in that not everyone needs to charge at the exact same time.


Those 4 hours are going to be very popular though?


The specific hours vary by customer - for me they are between 00:30 and 04:30 but for other members of the same tariff it varies.

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David Jenkins

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:45 PM Reply With Quote
Purely a coincidence, but I've just seen a picture on the Kia e-Niro facebook group that shows a car's display after a charge: 278 miles predicted range, 58295 miles on the odometer. 278 miles is pretty damn close to the 285 miles predicted by Kia. This driver uses a mixture of home (slow) charging together with high-speed charging during his working day. Slightly skewed data as I believe that the owner is a cab/uber driver in London so he would rarely do sustained long-distance/high-speed driving, but it's still impressive. This shows that batteries are no longer as delicate as they used to be, although he has gone through quite a few tyres in that period!

Note: I know I keep blowing the trumpet for electric cars, but I am very realistic about them - mine handles 99% of my driving, and I can cope with the other 1%. My wife's family lives in and around Gloucester - I can easily drive there on one charge and still have a bit of charge to spare (although we normally stop at Milton Keynes for lunch and a top-up charge while eating). My brother lives in Dornock, Scotland and that's a 2-day journey from East Anglia, if I'm going to be sensible about driving long distances. I can get to Glasgow in 2 hops, charging while we have lunch plus probably one brief extra top-up (pee break!), and easily get to Dornock in one hop the next day, with 'half a tank' remaining. Both journeys would be at normal speeds, not reduced to get more range.

With my old 40KWh Nissan Leaf I'd be lucky to get 125 miles on a full charge at dual-carriageway/motorway speeds. I certainly couldn't even get to Gloucester without a significant charge at MK.






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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 12:51 PM Reply With Quote
I really think there is a need for some sort of drive on, drive off train, ideally with charging capability onboard for the electric cars it is transporting. If that formed a "backbone" up and down, and perhaps across the wider parts of the country so that everyone can get to within say 150-200 miles of any part of the UK, then problem solved!
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David Jenkins

posted on 20/11/20 at 02:09 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
I really think there is a need for some sort of drive on, drive off train, ideally with charging capability onboard for the electric cars it is transporting. If that formed a "backbone" up and down, and perhaps across the wider parts of the country so that everyone can get to within say 150-200 miles of any part of the UK, then problem solved!


It costs a single person so much to get just a rail ticket across the country that I think it would be much cheaper to drive the electric car, even taking the expensive high-speed chargers into consideration. In fact, for my Scottish trip, you could include the cost of the overnight stay and still end up cheaper!






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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 02:35 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by David Jenkins
quote:
Originally posted by craig1410
I really think there is a need for some sort of drive on, drive off train, ideally with charging capability onboard for the electric cars it is transporting. If that formed a "backbone" up and down, and perhaps across the wider parts of the country so that everyone can get to within say 150-200 miles of any part of the UK, then problem solved!


It costs a single person so much to get just a rail ticket across the country that I think it would be much cheaper to drive the electric car, even taking the expensive high-speed chargers into consideration. In fact, for my Scottish trip, you could include the cost of the overnight stay and still end up cheaper!


lol, fair point

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pigeondave

posted on 20/11/20 at 04:21 PM Reply With Quote
Like others have said about digging up the roads, we're not making provisions now on the new builds.

I'm unlucky enough* to have worked on some fairly large London regeneration projects, and for the number of units we're putting onto a site (think tower blocks) have only a handful of charging points allowed for. Admittedly I switch off when M& E start to talk because they ALWAYS cause trouble.

If this is the future, why is there not a provision for every parking spot to be EV ready ? doesn't need a cable to it or a charging point, just a way of making it easy to hook up when needed.


As for autopilot cars, this will happen and we'll have to lump it. They'll force you to do it by hiking up insurance or something else until only the very rich can afford to drive.




*I am lucky to be working, I know. But most days it doesn't seem fun.

[Edited on 20/11/20 by pigeondave]

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steve m

posted on 20/11/20 at 07:23 PM Reply With Quote
Will many of us still be here in 2030 ? as with whats going on at the moment, a good percentage of us wont be!
Also, and im unemployed now since March, my annual mileage is about 1k and all local ,

Im sorry to say, but our elected govenment are f ing clowns, and should be rallying us all around to be positive , and look forward to our future and good covid free health, but oh no, the elected idiots have decided that one of their
incestuous sisters, who's a raciest and bully is innocent ??
they sack half the team that have been advising these idiots about covid ?
They invest billions of pounds to our military, money we dont have, so our kids and grandkids will be destitute
They have fucked up totally over Brexit

I am sorry, but i have no faith in these clowns ordering a cheese sandwich, let alone making a real decision that will affect ALL our lives,
This 2030 nonsense wont happen, and i doubt it will in 2040 the original dates banded about,

And then, just to make matters worse, we have a complete loon in America, with one finger hovering over "the red button"

steve





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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steve m

posted on 20/11/20 at 07:35 PM Reply With Quote
In the year 2525

https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=yfp-search-sa&p=in+the+year+2525#id=1&vid=6bf539eaf11904d9f6ca564bee0d20d6&action=click





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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craig1410

posted on 20/11/20 at 08:35 PM Reply With Quote
Well that went political all of a sudden.

I should probably refrain from further comment

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steve m

posted on 20/11/20 at 09:12 PM Reply With Quote
Craig, unless you are on the inside, and are unable to comment please feel free

However, within my circle of family, friends associates not one of us has any faith in any of the elected idiots in charge of this country at the moment,
and at my age of 60, i have never known a time, were i could say ALL, thats all parties, theres not one person out there i would trust running a charity shop

We would of been in a better state of affairs if the Monster raving looney party were in power

just saying

steve





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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Deckman001

posted on 20/11/20 at 10:24 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
In the year 2525

https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=yfp-search-sa&p=in+the+year+2525#id=1&vid=6bf539eaf11904d9f6ca564bee0d20d6&action=click


Blimey, Hadn't heard that for quite a while !!

Jason

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SteveWalker

posted on 20/11/20 at 10:43 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
We would of been in a better state of affairs if the Monster raving looney party were in power



Some years ago I was in a pub and happened to end up talking to the local candidate for the MRLP - he was actually very sensible, articulate and logical. To be fair a number of the MRLP's policies have made it onto the statute books - 24 hour licensing; lowering the voting age to 18; abolishing dog licenses; legalising commercial radio; passports for pets amongst them.

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Mr Whippy

posted on 20/11/20 at 10:43 PM Reply With Quote
Tbh top of my list for things next year is to get an EV, nothing fancy, most likely an older Leaf. Even its 100 mile'ish range is way more than I need. I'm really looking forward to it, even being an old petrol head.

I've been in Tesla's at events, their just the stuff of dreams, well outside my price range for now, but if I won the lottery, feck the Ferrari I'll be in the Tesla showroom that same day

Been in a leaf at 30mph on grass, literally could not hear anything, it was just totally silent! Very weird.

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craig1410

posted on 21/11/20 at 01:05 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
Craig, unless you are on the inside, and are unable to comment please feel free

However, within my circle of family, friends associates not one of us has any faith in any of the elected idiots in charge of this country at the moment,
and at my age of 60, i have never known a time, were i could say ALL, thats all parties, theres not one person out there i would trust running a charity shop

We would of been in a better state of affairs if the Monster raving looney party were in power

just saying

steve


No I'm not on the inside in any way but frankly I consider myself fiscally conservative and socially liberal which I guess in normal times aligns me pretty well with the likes of Cameron and to a slightly lesser extent Johnson. I also believe very much in the UK and one of the things that pains me most is how this pandemic has fractured the UK with all sorts of political agendas going on. I find that sad because the pandemic doesn't respect borders or political divides and should really have brought us together. It seemed to do just that back in March but by the time we got into the summer it all started to diverge. Different slogans, different number of tiers, different lockdown timing, different travel quarantine country lists, different track & trace apps etc etc.

Governments on all sides in all countries have made terrible mistakes but I honestly can't bring myself to undermine them or call them names because I am pretty sure I could not do a better job myself and honestly I don't think I would want the job because it is an utterly thankless task. The govt get criticised for moving too fast or too slow, for being too cautious or not cautious enough, for agreeing with one group of scientists against the advice of another, for trying to balance saving lives now vs saving livelihoods down the road, for restricting liberties too much or not restricting them enough. And there is no playbook for this to consult. Yes there have been pandemics before but you can't compare a post war pandemic in 1918 with Covid-19 in today's world where we all regularly fly around the globe for business or pleasure. Even the more recent SARS and MERS epidemics were not really comparable although the countries affected directly by those were probably better prepared for Covid.

So frankly I mostly give our politicians and scientists a pass because for the most part I do believe they are doing their best. They were elected democratically by us all collectively and the various top scientists and other civil servants rose to their senior positions either by merit or by the choices of previous and current elected governments. We won't really know how well each country and government did until maybe 5 years from now when we can look back with the benefit of hindsight and properly critique each key decision. In the meantime we should stop second guessing every single micro-decision that our government makes and let them get on with the job at hand. I say that from a completely non-political standpoint because I think whatever major political plans Boris Johnson had went out the window back in March.

Someone criticised the increase in defence spending but as a father of two kids who are both in the RAF, and as a citizen of a country which chose to leave the EU and has attracted provocation from Russia in recent years, I think it's a very good thing indeed for our country's security. Let's not forget that military spending will also create lots of jobs not just in the military but in industry as a whole.

Yes, Brexit is looming and as a remainer I approach it with trepidation but unlike my Scottish nationalist friends, I have come to accept the result of the Brexit referendum and I have no doubt the UK will prosper outside the EU. There will be bumps along the way but the UK has a lot to offer other countries and further trade deals will emerge.

Anyway, I've prattled on for too long already after saying that I would refrain from comment...

Rest assured I respect opinions which differ from my own and I hope my comments above don't cause offence to anyone. I certainly don't claim to have the answers any more than our country's leaders do.

quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Tbh top of my list for things next year is to get an EV, nothing fancy, most likely an older Leaf. Even its 100 mile'ish range is way more than I need. I'm really looking forward to it, even being an old petrol head.

I've been in Tesla's at events, their just the stuff of dreams, well outside my price range for now, but if I won the lottery, feck the Ferrari I'll be in the Tesla showroom that same day

Been in a leaf at 30mph on grass, literally could not hear anything, it was just totally silent! Very weird.


As I said before, I love driving our i3. It's a totally different driving experience but in a good way! The smoothness and instant torque must be what it's like to drive a V12 with noise cancelling headphones on!

[Edited on 21/11/2020 by craig1410]

[Edited on 21/11/2020 by craig1410]

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JC

posted on 21/11/20 at 07:28 AM Reply With Quote
Hydrogen. That’s the way ahead!

Some may want fancy and expensive fuel cell technology powered by hydrogen...but lets just burn it instead. We can then keep our V12s and V8s, revel in the sound and bottle the emissions to drink on our journey....

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David Jenkins

posted on 21/11/20 at 08:48 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
Tbh top of my list for things next year is to get an EV, nothing fancy, most likely an older Leaf. Even its 100 mile'ish range is way more than I need. I'm really looking forward to it, even being an old petrol head.

I've been in Tesla's at events, their just the stuff of dreams, well outside my price range for now, but if I won the lottery, feck the Ferrari I'll be in the Tesla showroom that same day

Been in a leaf at 30mph on grass, literally could not hear anything, it was just totally silent! Very weird.


I used to have a 40KWh Leaf - OK in many respects, but poor in others. They increased the size of the battery from earlier models, but didn't uprate things like battery heat management. This meant that you couldn't do more than 2 fast recharges on a long fast run as the battery management system limited the charge rate to protect the battery. A well-known YouTuber had a 'race' from the south of England to the north of Scotland (he imported used electric vehicles to one of the Scottish islands). Although is 40KWh Leaf had the greater range, he was the last to arrive as his last few charges took so long. The others (Ioniq and an old Leaf, I believe) got there long before him because they could charge unrestricted as often as they liked, even though they had to stop more often.

So an earlier Leaf is not a bad choice - limited range (good enough for most drivers' normal driving) but otherwise very sound. You might also consider a Renault Zoe, especially if you're prepared to pay the rental for a leased battery - because many are put off by the battery lease the cars are often very cheap (around £5K) and the rental isn't that bad. Also, Renault replace the battery if it dies at no cost to the owner (I believe).






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Mr Whippy

posted on 21/11/20 at 10:10 AM Reply With Quote
Thanks, the leaf would be used for very specific journeys, all quite short and highly predictable. We have a volvo for long trips and towing. The Renault Zoe is a cracking car but more expensive and the battery lease too expensive for its purpose, although for higher mileages it would be my first choice.
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